IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Arizona St.
Big 12
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	+7.7	#73
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.5	#87
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.2	#91

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.5	#50

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.3%	1.4%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	5.0%	5.2%	0.9%
Top 6 Seed	10.7%	11.0%	2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid	27.0%	27.7%	9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	26.4%	27.1%	9.0%
Average Seed	7.3	7.3	8.4

.500 or above	38.1%	39.0%	13.6%
.500 or above in Conference	26.3%	26.9%	11.8%
Conference Champion	0.8%	0.8%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	16.9%	16.3%	32.6%

First Four	4.1%	4.2%	2.4%
First Round	24.8%	25.5%	7.3%
Second Round	14.2%	14.5%	4.1%
Sweet Sixteen	5.6%	5.7%	1.6%
Elite Eight	2.1%	2.2%	0.3%
Final Four	0.8%	0.8%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 8	2 - 8
Quad 1b	2 - 4	4 - 12
Quad 2	4 - 4	7 - 16
Quad 3	3 - 1	10 - 17
Quad 4	4 - 0	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2024	315	Idaho St.	W	77-58	96%
Nov 08, 2024	98	Santa Clara	W	76-74	57%
Nov 10, 2024	6	@ Gonzaga	L	71-83	13%
Nov 14, 2024	69	Grand Canyon	L	73-74	48%
Nov 17, 2024	201	St. Thomas	W	74-61	87%
Nov 20, 2024	345	Cal Poly	W	79-57	98%
Nov 28, 2024	70	New Mexico	L	78-79	48%
Dec 03, 2024	282	San Diego	W	84-67	92%
Dec 14, 2024	25	Florida	L	77-81	35%
Dec 21, 2024	116	Massachusetts	W	76-71	65%
Dec 31, 2024	32	@ BYU	L	72-79	27%
Jan 04, 2025	79	Colorado	W	74-71	61%
Jan 08, 2025	2	@ Kansas	L	68-82	11%
Jan 11, 2025	9	Baylor	L	69-74	32%
Jan 14, 2025	71	Central Florida	W	74-71	59%
Jan 18, 2025	27	@ Cincinnati	L	68-75	27%
Jan 21, 2025	65	@ West Virginia	L	72-76	37%
Jan 25, 2025	8	Iowa St.	L	67-73	32%
Jan 28, 2025	79	@ Colorado	L	71-74	41%
Feb 01, 2025	11	Arizona	L	76-81	33%
Feb 04, 2025	39	Kansas St.	L	71-72	49%
Feb 09, 2025	87	@ Oklahoma St.	L	70-72	43%
Feb 12, 2025	21	@ Texas Tech	L	68-76	25%
Feb 15, 2025	53	TCU	W	75-74	54%
Feb 18, 2025	3	Houston	L	62-70	25%
Feb 23, 2025	39	@ Kansas St.	L	68-74	30%
Feb 26, 2025	32	BYU	L	75-76	47%
Mar 01, 2025	77	@ Utah	L	73-76	41%
Mar 04, 2025	11	@ Arizona	L	73-84	18%
Mar 08, 2025	21	Texas Tech	L	71-73	43%
Projected Record						14 - 16	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.8	1st
2nd													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0				1.5	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.1	0.7	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0					2.2	3rd
4th											0.0	0.2	0.8	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0						3.0	4th
5th											0.1	0.8	1.7	0.9	0.1	0.0							3.6	5th
6th										0.0	0.7	2.0	1.5	0.2	0.0								4.5	6th
7th									0.0	0.4	2.3	2.1	0.5	0.0									5.3	7th
8th									0.3	1.9	2.8	0.9	0.0	0.0									5.9	8th
9th							0.0	0.1	1.6	3.6	1.6	0.2	0.0										7.0	9th
10th							0.1	1.2	3.7	2.5	0.4	0.0											7.8	10th
11th						0.0	0.7	3.3	3.2	0.8	0.0	0.0											8.0	11th
12th					0.0	0.5	2.8	4.0	1.3	0.1	0.0												8.8	12th
13th				0.0	0.5	2.7	4.4	2.1	0.2	0.0													9.9	13th
14th			0.0	0.6	2.6	4.3	2.5	0.4	0.0														10.4	14th
15th		0.1	0.9	2.9	3.9	2.3	0.5	0.0	0.0														10.7	15th
16th	0.6	1.9	3.2	3.1	1.6	0.3	0.0															10.7	16th

Total	0.6	2.0	4.2	6.6	8.5	10.3	10.9	11.1	10.3	9.2	7.9	6.2	4.6	3.2	2.1	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	94.2%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
17-3	66.0%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
16-4	35.6%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
15-5	12.0%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	2.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.3%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.8%	0.8		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%							0.0
19-1	0.0%		100.0%	52.8%	47.2%	1.3		0.0	0.0																	100.0%
18-2	0.1%		100.0%	26.1%	73.9%	1.4		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0															100.0%
17-3	0.3%		100.0%	10.7%	89.3%	2.0		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0														100.0%
16-4	0.7%		100.0%	13.0%	87.0%	2.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0												100.0%
15-5	1.2%		100.0%	9.6%	90.4%	3.4		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0									100.0%
14-6	2.1%		99.8%	7.4%	92.3%	4.3		0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.0		99.7%
13-7	3.2%		99.2%	3.9%	95.3%	5.4		0.0	0.0	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0						0.0		99.2%
12-8	4.6%		95.4%	1.4%	94.0%	6.7		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.2		95.3%
11-9	6.2%		86.7%	1.1%	85.6%	7.9				0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0				0.8		86.5%
10-10	7.9%		65.6%	0.7%	64.9%	9.1				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.9	1.0	1.1	0.3	0.0				2.7		65.4%
9-11	9.2%		33.4%	0.7%	32.7%	10.0					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.7	1.0	0.4	0.0				6.2		32.9%
8-12	10.3%		10.7%	0.1%	10.5%	10.7							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0			9.2		10.6%
7-13	11.1%		2.3%	0.1%	2.2%	11.1								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				10.8		2.2%
6-14	10.9%		0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	11.3												0.0	0.0					10.9		0.1%
5-15	10.3%																							10.3
4-16	8.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.5
3-17	6.6%																							6.6
2-18	4.2%																							4.2
1-19	2.0%																							2.0
0-20	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		27.0%	0.8%	26.1%	7.3		0.4	0.9	1.6	2.1	2.6	3.1	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.8	3.3	1.2	0.0	0.0		0.0	73.0		26.4%