Preseason Rankings
Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#15
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.7#42
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.5% 1.5% 0.2%
#1 Seed 6.8% 7.2% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 14.7% 15.4% 3.4%
Top 4 Seed 31.5% 32.9% 10.7%
Top 6 Seed 47.5% 49.1% 22.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.4% 74.0% 47.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.9% 71.5% 45.8%
Average Seed 5.3 5.3 6.7
.500 or above 90.5% 91.7% 70.8%
.500 or above in Conference 70.6% 71.9% 50.4%
Conference Champion 11.1% 11.6% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 2.6% 8.3%
First Four3.1% 3.1% 3.7%
First Round70.9% 72.6% 45.4%
Second Round51.8% 53.2% 29.2%
Sweet Sixteen28.3% 29.3% 13.1%
Elite Eight14.1% 14.7% 5.8%
Final Four7.0% 7.3% 2.4%
Championship Game3.3% 3.5% 1.1%
National Champion1.6% 1.7% 0.5%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 93.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 8
Quad 25 - 211 - 10
Quad 34 - 115 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 158   Lipscomb W 88-72 94%    
  Nov 09, 2024 9   Baylor L 74-76 41%    
  Nov 13, 2024 129   Troy W 84-69 91%    
  Nov 18, 2024 314   Pacific W 90-65 99%    
  Nov 22, 2024 267   Arkansas Little Rock W 89-67 97%    
  Nov 25, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-55 99.7%   
  Nov 28, 2024 22   Illinois W 80-79 54%    
  Dec 03, 2024 36   @ Miami (FL) L 78-79 48%    
  Dec 07, 2024 232   Texas San Antonio W 91-71 96%    
  Dec 10, 2024 30   Michigan W 77-75 56%    
  Dec 14, 2024 341   Central Arkansas W 91-63 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 312   N.C. A&T W 88-63 98%    
  Dec 30, 2024 146   Oakland W 83-67 91%    
  Jan 04, 2025 14   @ Tennessee L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 08, 2025 40   Mississippi W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 25   Florida W 85-80 65%    
  Jan 14, 2025 54   @ LSU W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 58   @ Missouri W 77-75 55%    
  Jan 22, 2025 61   Georgia W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 55   Oklahoma W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 16   @ Kentucky L 82-85 41%    
  Feb 05, 2025 17   @ Texas L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 5   Alabama L 84-86 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 54   LSU W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 19   @ Texas A&M L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 19, 2025 10   @ Auburn L 76-81 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 58   Missouri W 80-72 73%    
  Feb 26, 2025 17   Texas W 77-73 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 64   @ South Carolina W 71-69 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 89   @ Vanderbilt W 77-73 62%    
  Mar 08, 2025 33   Mississippi St. W 77-72 67%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 3.3 2.6 1.3 0.3 11.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.7 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.3 1.5 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.3 3.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 3.7 1.2 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.2 1.9 0.1 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.6 0.2 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.5 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.2 9.0 10.6 11.7 11.5 10.7 9.1 7.4 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.2% 1.3    1.2 0.1
16-2 88.2% 2.6    2.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 66.1% 3.3    1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 34.2% 2.5    0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.7% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.4 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.3% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 100.0% 33.4% 66.6% 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.0% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 2.0 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.4% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 2.7 1.3 2.3 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.1% 99.9% 14.7% 85.2% 3.7 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 10.7% 99.4% 9.5% 89.9% 4.8 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-7 11.5% 97.1% 5.2% 91.9% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.2 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.9%
10-8 11.7% 89.7% 3.1% 86.6% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2 89.3%
9-9 10.6% 75.4% 2.0% 73.5% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.6 74.9%
8-10 9.0% 47.2% 1.2% 46.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.8 46.5%
7-11 7.2% 19.9% 0.5% 19.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.8 19.5%
6-12 5.3% 5.2% 0.3% 4.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.0 4.8%
5-13 3.7% 0.5% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.5%
4-14 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 2.2 0.1%
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 72.4% 8.4% 64.0% 5.3 6.8 7.9 8.5 8.3 8.0 8.0 6.3 5.9 4.8 4.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 27.6 69.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.5 8.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.2 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.2 1.8