Preseason Rankings
Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#134
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#143
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#88
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#223
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.0% 15.8% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 13.1
.500 or above 70.9% 80.5% 56.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.9% 83.0% 70.0%
Conference Champion 16.8% 20.4% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.1% 2.9%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round12.9% 15.7% 8.7%
Second Round2.5% 3.2% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 131   Akron W 73-70 60%    
  Nov 08, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 74-93 4%    
  Nov 12, 2024 267   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-72 82%    
  Nov 16, 2024 164   Stephen F. Austin W 78-73 67%    
  Nov 29, 2024 132   Indiana St. L 78-79 49%    
  Nov 30, 2024 211   Rice W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 01, 2024 155   Hofstra W 73-71 55%    
  Dec 05, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 82-68 88%    
  Dec 08, 2024 42   @ Memphis L 74-86 15%    
  Dec 12, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 80-76 63%    
  Dec 15, 2024 88   @ UAB L 73-81 24%    
  Dec 21, 2024 291   Coastal Carolina W 82-71 84%    
  Jan 02, 2025 227   @ Old Dominion W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 04, 2025 107   @ James Madison L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 09, 2025 223   @ South Alabama W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 129   @ Troy L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 16, 2025 156   Louisiana W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 204   Georgia St. W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 23, 2025 139   Appalachian St. W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 185   Texas St. W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 29, 2025 236   @ Southern Miss W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 185   @ Texas St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 05, 2025 194   @ Marshall W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 12, 2025 236   Southern Miss W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 129   Troy W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 223   South Alabama W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 296   Louisiana Monroe W 79-67 83%    
  Feb 26, 2025 156   @ Louisiana L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 28, 2025 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 76-70 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.4 4.8 4.1 2.2 0.6 16.8 1st
2nd 0.3 2.0 4.6 4.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.3 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.0 1.2 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.1 0.2 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.5 9.3 11.1 11.9 11.5 10.7 9.2 6.9 4.5 2.2 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-1 98.4% 2.2    2.1 0.1 0.0
16-2 90.2% 4.1    3.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 69.2% 4.8    2.9 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.3% 3.4    1.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.1% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 10.4 4.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 68.3% 54.0% 14.2% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 31.0%
17-1 2.2% 53.2% 46.8% 6.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 12.1%
16-2 4.5% 41.3% 39.5% 1.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.6 3.0%
15-3 6.9% 30.4% 29.7% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.8 0.9%
14-4 9.2% 23.6% 23.5% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 7.0 0.1%
13-5 10.7% 18.3% 18.3% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.7
12-6 11.5% 12.9% 12.9% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.0
11-7 11.9% 7.3% 7.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.0
10-8 11.1% 4.6% 4.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.6
9-9 9.3% 3.4% 3.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.0
8-10 7.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
7-11 5.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.0% 12.7% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.7 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 87.0 0.4%