Preseason Rankings
Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.1#10
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.1#61
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.5% 4.8% 1.1%
#1 Seed 17.0% 18.0% 5.1%
Top 2 Seed 32.1% 33.7% 12.8%
Top 4 Seed 54.4% 56.5% 28.9%
Top 6 Seed 68.4% 70.5% 42.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.6% 86.2% 64.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.0% 83.7% 62.3%
Average Seed 4.1 4.0 5.5
.500 or above 89.2% 90.7% 70.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.3% 83.5% 67.3%
Conference Champion 20.1% 21.0% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.0% 3.5%
First Four3.4% 3.2% 5.6%
First Round83.1% 84.8% 61.8%
Second Round68.8% 70.7% 45.3%
Sweet Sixteen43.9% 45.5% 24.6%
Elite Eight25.2% 26.3% 11.8%
Final Four13.5% 14.2% 5.5%
Championship Game6.9% 7.3% 2.1%
National Champion3.5% 3.7% 0.9%

Next Game: Vermont (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 25 - 113 - 10
Quad 34 - 018 - 10
Quad 43 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 111   Vermont W 76-61 93%    
  Nov 09, 2024 3   Houston L 67-70 41%    
  Nov 13, 2024 118   Kent St. W 81-65 93%    
  Nov 18, 2024 231   North Alabama W 88-65 98%    
  Nov 25, 2024 8   Iowa St. L 71-72 50%    
  Dec 04, 2024 4   @ Duke L 71-76 32%    
  Dec 08, 2024 133   Richmond W 81-64 93%    
  Dec 14, 2024 31   Ohio St. W 76-72 65%    
  Dec 17, 2024 204   Georgia St. W 86-65 96%    
  Dec 21, 2024 12   Purdue W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 30, 2024 216   Monmouth W 86-64 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 58   Missouri W 80-70 80%    
  Jan 07, 2025 17   @ Texas W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 64   @ South Carolina W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 14, 2025 33   Mississippi St. W 78-70 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 61   @ Georgia W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 14   Tennessee W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 29, 2025 54   @ LSU W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 40   @ Mississippi W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 04, 2025 55   Oklahoma W 79-69 79%    
  Feb 08, 2025 25   Florida W 85-78 72%    
  Feb 11, 2025 89   @ Vanderbilt W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 81-86 34%    
  Feb 19, 2025 15   Arkansas W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 61   Georgia W 80-70 80%    
  Feb 26, 2025 40   Mississippi W 80-72 75%    
  Mar 01, 2025 16   @ Kentucky L 82-83 48%    
  Mar 04, 2025 19   @ Texas A&M W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 08, 2025 5   Alabama W 84-83 53%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 5.7 5.3 3.0 0.9 20.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 4.5 5.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.3 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.4 1.4 0.1 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.1 1.6 0.1 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.8 0.9 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.4 0.1 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.6 6.3 8.1 10.1 11.6 12.2 11.4 10.7 8.5 5.8 3.0 0.9 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.6% 3.0    2.8 0.2
16-2 91.4% 5.3    4.3 1.0 0.1
15-3 67.0% 5.7    3.3 2.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 36.5% 3.9    1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.9% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 12.9 5.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 100.0% 62.3% 37.7% 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.0% 100.0% 49.7% 50.3% 1.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.8% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 1.3 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.5% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1.6 4.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.7% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 2.2 3.1 4.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.4% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 2.9 1.5 3.4 3.3 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.2% 99.8% 11.1% 88.7% 3.9 0.5 1.8 3.2 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 11.6% 99.0% 7.7% 91.3% 5.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.5 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
10-8 10.1% 94.3% 3.9% 90.5% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 94.1%
9-9 8.1% 79.5% 2.2% 77.3% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 79.0%
8-10 6.3% 53.4% 2.0% 51.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.9 52.5%
7-11 4.6% 23.7% 0.5% 23.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.5 23.3%
6-12 3.2% 6.1% 0.3% 5.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.9%
5-13 1.9% 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.0%
4-14 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 84.6% 14.5% 70.1% 4.1 17.0 15.1 12.3 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.2 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 82.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 98.5 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 88.9 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 93.3 6.7