IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.1	#299
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.8	#313
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.3	#277

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.8	#306

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.9%	8.5%	3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	14.5	15.2

.500 or above	24.8%	54.3%	23.2%
.500 or above in Conference	39.8%	60.9%	38.7%
Conference Champion	3.7%	9.9%	3.3%
Last Place in Conference	11.4%	4.9%	11.8%

First Four	1.0%	0.5%	1.0%
First Round	3.3%	8.3%	3.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 5.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 10
Quad 4	10 - 8	12 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	85	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	58-75	5%
Nov 09, 2024	361	VMI	W	81-69	86%
Nov 13, 2024	328	Southern Indiana	W	73-67	70%
Nov 16, 2024	194	@ Marshall	L	67-76	22%
Nov 19, 2024	50	@ Louisville	L	62-82	4%
Nov 23, 2024	265	Bowling Green	W	70-69	53%
Nov 30, 2024	174	@ Northern Kentucky	L	63-73	20%
Dec 04, 2024	238	@ Western Carolina	L	65-71	28%
Dec 14, 2024	240	Ball St.	L	68-69	49%
Dec 19, 2024	177	@ Wyoming	L	65-74	21%
Dec 21, 2024	79	@ Colorado	L	60-78	7%
Jan 02, 2025	231	@ North Alabama	L	67-74	28%
Jan 04, 2025	341	@ Central Arkansas	W	71-70	54%
Jan 09, 2025	222	Jacksonville	L	66-67	47%
Jan 11, 2025	254	North Florida	W	71-70	52%
Jan 16, 2025	158	Lipscomb	L	71-75	36%
Jan 18, 2025	255	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	69-74	33%
Jan 23, 2025	206	Florida Gulf Coast	L	64-66	44%
Jan 25, 2025	290	Stetson	W	70-68	58%
Jan 30, 2025	281	@ Austin Peay	L	65-69	36%
Feb 01, 2025	158	@ Lipscomb	L	68-78	19%
Feb 06, 2025	254	@ North Florida	L	68-73	32%
Feb 08, 2025	222	@ Jacksonville	L	63-70	28%
Feb 13, 2025	289	Queens	W	77-75	58%
Feb 15, 2025	351	West Georgia	W	74-65	76%
Feb 18, 2025	281	Austin Peay	W	68-66	56%
Feb 20, 2025	255	Eastern Kentucky	W	72-71	52%
Feb 24, 2025	290	@ Stetson	L	67-71	38%
Feb 26, 2025	206	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	61-69	26%
Projected Record						11 - 18	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.0		3.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.5	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.0				4.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.1	2.4	1.0	0.2	0.0					6.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	2.5	3.1	1.1	0.1	0.0						7.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	2.3	3.8	1.5	0.1								8.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.2	4.5	1.8	0.2									8.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	2.0	5.0	2.8	0.3	0.0									10.3	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.9	4.9	3.3	0.5	0.0										11.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.9	4.7	3.5	0.6	0.0											11.1	9th
10th			0.0	0.5	2.3	4.3	3.3	0.8	0.0												11.3	10th
11th		0.1	0.9	2.5	3.9	2.6	0.6	0.0													10.6	11th
12th	0.3	1.2	2.0	1.8	1.1	0.3	0.0														6.8	12th

Total	0.3	1.3	2.9	4.8	7.6	9.3	10.8	11.6	11.5	10.4	8.9	7.2	5.4	3.7	2.2	1.2	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	95.3%	0.5		0.4	0.1	0.0
15-3	76.0%	0.9		0.7	0.3	0.0
14-4	48.6%	1.0		0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	21.0%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.4%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0		0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.7%	3.7		2.0	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		54.0%	54.0%		13.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
17-1	0.2%		47.8%	47.8%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-2	0.5%		28.7%	28.7%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.4
15-3	1.2%		29.4%	29.4%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.9
14-4	2.2%		21.0%	21.0%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	1.7
13-5	3.7%		15.4%	15.4%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	3.1
12-6	5.4%		11.3%	11.3%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	4.8
11-7	7.2%		7.3%	7.3%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	6.7
10-8	8.9%		5.0%	5.0%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	8.5
9-9	10.4%		3.1%	3.1%		15.9																0.0	0.3	10.1
8-10	11.5%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.3
7-11	11.6%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	11.5
6-12	10.8%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.8
5-13	9.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.3
4-14	7.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.6
3-15	4.8%																							4.8
2-16	2.9%																							2.9
1-17	1.3%																							1.3
0-18	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		3.9%	3.9%	0.0%	15.1												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	1.8	96.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%