IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal Poly
Big West
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.8	#345
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.4	#271
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-8.0	#355

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.8	#303

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.5	15.0

.500 or above	1.4%	9.1%	1.2%
.500 or above in Conference	4.9%	15.7%	4.7%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	59.0%	37.2%	59.5%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 7
Quad 3	1 - 9	1 - 16
Quad 4	5 - 10	6 - 25

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2024	82	@ San Francisco	L	56-78	2%
Nov 07, 2024	109	@ California	L	59-78	4%
Nov 14, 2024	127	Seattle	L	60-71	16%
Nov 17, 2024	262	@ Eastern Washington	L	67-77	19%
Nov 20, 2024	73	@ Arizona St.	L	57-79	2%
Nov 23, 2024	35	@ St. Mary's	L	49-75	1%
Nov 26, 2024	273	Grambling St.	L	62-65	39%
Nov 30, 2024	93	@ Stanford	L	60-81	3%
Dec 05, 2024	191	@ UC Davis	L	58-72	12%
Dec 07, 2024	239	Cal St. Northridge	L	69-74	34%
Dec 14, 2024	160	@ San Jose St.	L	59-74	10%
Dec 17, 2024	317	Denver	L	71-72	49%
Dec 21, 2024	302	@ Nebraska Omaha	L	64-72	26%
Jan 02, 2025	103	UC Irvine	L	61-75	12%
Jan 05, 2025	192	@ Hawaii	L	58-71	13%
Jan 09, 2025	162	@ UC San Diego	L	59-74	10%
Jan 11, 2025	167	UC Santa Barbara	L	64-73	23%
Jan 16, 2025	191	UC Davis	L	61-69	26%
Jan 18, 2025	103	@ UC Irvine	L	58-78	5%
Jan 25, 2025	245	Long Beach St.	L	69-74	35%
Jan 30, 2025	278	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	59-68	22%
Feb 01, 2025	183	@ UC Riverside	L	60-74	12%
Feb 06, 2025	192	Hawaii	L	61-68	27%
Feb 13, 2025	244	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	59-70	19%
Feb 15, 2025	239	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	66-77	19%
Feb 20, 2025	162	UC San Diego	L	62-71	23%
Feb 22, 2025	183	UC Riverside	L	63-71	26%
Feb 27, 2025	167	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	61-76	12%
Mar 01, 2025	278	Cal St. Bakersfield	L	62-65	40%
Mar 06, 2025	244	Cal St. Fullerton	L	62-67	35%
Mar 08, 2025	245	@ Long Beach St.	L	66-77	19%
Projected Record						6 - 25	4 - 16

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.3	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0								1.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0									2.0	5th
6th								0.1	0.6	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0										2.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	0.9	2.0	1.4	0.2	0.0											4.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	1.5	2.8	1.8	0.3	0.0												6.9	8th
9th				0.2	1.1	3.4	4.3	2.3	0.5	0.0													11.7	9th
10th		0.1	1.4	4.2	6.5	6.0	2.8	0.6	0.0	0.0													21.6	10th
11th	5.4	10.5	12.8	10.9	6.1	2.1	0.3	0.0															48.2	11th

Total	5.4	10.6	14.2	15.3	13.7	11.8	9.1	6.7	4.9	3.4	2.2	1.3	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-3	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-4	65.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-5	45.9%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	12.1%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.7%	0.0				0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2	0.0%																							0.0
17-3	0.0%																							0.0
16-4	0.0%		41.1%	41.1%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
15-5	0.1%		23.3%	23.3%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
14-6	0.2%		8.6%	8.6%		14.7															0.0	0.0		0.2
13-7	0.4%		3.6%	3.6%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4
12-8	0.7%		3.0%	3.0%		15.4														0.0		0.0	0.0	0.7
11-9	1.3%		1.5%	1.5%		15.3																0.0	0.0	1.3
10-10	2.2%		0.5%	0.5%		15.8																0.0	0.0	2.2
9-11	3.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.4
8-12	4.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
7-13	6.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.7
6-14	9.1%																							9.1
5-15	11.8%																							11.8
4-16	13.7%																							13.7
3-17	15.3%																							15.3
2-18	14.2%																							14.2
1-19	10.6%																							10.6
0-20	5.4%																							5.4

Total	100%		0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	15.0													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	99.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	2.2%