IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.0	#244
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.0	#256
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.9	#295

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.1	#171

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.9%	8.5%	3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.2	13.6	14.3

.500 or above	28.5%	57.6%	26.2%
.500 or above in Conference	43.1%	64.4%	41.4%
Conference Champion	3.9%	9.2%	3.5%
Last Place in Conference	9.4%	3.4%	9.9%

First Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
First Round	3.8%	8.5%	3.4%
Second Round	0.3%	0.9%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 13
Quad 4	10 - 6	13 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	69	@ Grand Canyon	L	62-77	7%
Nov 08, 2024	93	@ Stanford	L	64-77	11%
Nov 13, 2024	79	@ Colorado	L	61-75	9%
Nov 15, 2024	123	@ Oregon St.	L	60-70	20%
Nov 18, 2024	315	Idaho St.	W	67-60	74%
Nov 22, 2024	23	@ UCLA	L	54-73	4%
Nov 26, 2024	217	@ Pepperdine	L	66-70	36%
Nov 30, 2024	314	@ Pacific	W	70-69	54%
Dec 05, 2024	245	Long Beach St.	W	74-71	60%
Dec 07, 2024	183	@ UC Riverside	L	65-71	30%
Dec 15, 2024	317	Denver	W	76-68	74%
Dec 22, 2024	177	Wyoming	L	68-69	49%
Jan 02, 2025	239	Cal St. Northridge	W	74-71	59%
Jan 04, 2025	162	UC San Diego	L	67-68	47%
Jan 09, 2025	191	@ UC Davis	L	63-69	31%
Jan 11, 2025	192	Hawaii	W	66-65	51%
Jan 16, 2025	103	@ UC Irvine	L	62-74	15%
Jan 18, 2025	245	@ Long Beach St.	L	71-74	40%
Jan 23, 2025	278	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	66-61	65%
Jan 25, 2025	167	UC Santa Barbara	L	69-70	47%
Feb 02, 2025	192	@ Hawaii	L	62-68	33%
Feb 06, 2025	239	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	71-74	39%
Feb 08, 2025	191	UC Davis	W	66-65	50%
Feb 13, 2025	345	Cal Poly	W	70-59	81%
Feb 15, 2025	278	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	63-64	45%
Feb 20, 2025	167	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	66-73	28%
Feb 27, 2025	103	UC Irvine	L	65-71	31%
Mar 01, 2025	162	@ UC San Diego	L	64-71	28%
Mar 06, 2025	345	@ Cal Poly	W	67-62	65%
Mar 08, 2025	183	UC Riverside	L	67-68	50%
Projected Record						12 - 18	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0		3.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.2	2.0	1.6	0.8	0.2	0.0				6.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	2.1	2.9	1.6	0.4	0.0	0.0					7.7	3rd
4th										0.1	0.9	3.0	3.3	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0						8.8	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	3.6	3.8	1.6	0.1	0.0								10.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.1	3.9	4.1	1.5	0.2	0.0									10.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.4	4.2	4.3	1.4	0.2											11.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	1.7	4.4	4.2	1.4	0.1												12.1	8th
9th				0.1	0.7	2.5	4.3	3.5	1.1	0.1													12.2	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.3	2.7	3.4	2.0	0.6	0.0														10.5	10th
11th	0.2	0.6	1.3	1.6	1.4	0.7	0.1	0.0															5.9	11th

Total	0.2	0.7	1.6	3.1	4.8	6.9	8.2	10.0	10.6	10.9	10.2	9.1	7.5	5.8	4.3	2.9	2.0	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
18-2	98.0%	0.4		0.3	0.0
17-3	82.0%	0.7		0.5	0.2	0.0
16-4	56.6%	1.1		0.7	0.4	0.1
15-5	31.8%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-6	10.4%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	3.9%	3.9		2.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		78.3%	78.3%		10.6						0.0				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
19-1	0.2%		61.8%	60.3%	1.6%	12.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		4.0%
18-2	0.4%		39.6%	38.3%	1.3%	12.7											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2		2.2%
17-3	0.9%		31.9%	31.9%		13.2												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.6
16-4	2.0%		29.6%	29.6%		13.5												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.4
15-5	2.9%		21.4%	21.4%		14.0													0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	2.3
14-6	4.3%		15.3%	15.3%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0	3.6
13-7	5.8%		9.2%	9.2%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	5.3
12-8	7.5%		4.9%	4.9%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	7.1
11-9	9.1%		3.0%	3.0%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	8.8
10-10	10.2%		1.3%	1.3%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.1	10.0
9-11	10.9%		1.0%	1.0%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	10.7
8-12	10.6%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
7-13	10.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
6-14	8.2%																							8.2
5-15	6.9%																							6.9
4-16	4.8%																							4.8
3-17	3.1%																							3.1
2-18	1.6%																							1.6
1-19	0.7%																							0.7
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		3.9%	3.9%	0.0%	14.2						0.0				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	1.1	1.1	0.5	96.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%