Preseason Rankings
California Baptist
Western Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#163
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.1#347
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#174
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#157
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 9.1% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.7
.500 or above 60.9% 64.3% 33.2%
.500 or above in Conference 57.9% 60.1% 40.0%
Conference Champion 9.1% 9.8% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 8.2% 16.8%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round8.4% 9.0% 3.5%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 89.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 55 - 11
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 329   Incarnate Word W 76-63 89%    
  Nov 09, 2024 176   Kennesaw St. W 77-73 64%    
  Nov 12, 2024 183   UC Riverside W 68-64 64%    
  Nov 15, 2024 352   LIU Brooklyn W 77-61 92%    
  Nov 20, 2024 226   Northern Colorado W 74-68 72%    
  Nov 23, 2024 262   Eastern Washington W 75-67 76%    
  Nov 26, 2024 78   SMU L 64-71 26%    
  Dec 01, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 62-73 17%    
  Dec 11, 2024 47   @ San Diego St. L 57-70 14%    
  Dec 16, 2024 197   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-64 46%    
  Dec 21, 2024 250   @ Fresno St. W 65-64 55%    
  Dec 28, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 73-61 84%    
  Dec 30, 2024 103   UC Irvine L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 04, 2025 127   Seattle W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 151   @ Utah Valley L 63-66 39%    
  Jan 16, 2025 221   @ Tarleton St. W 66-65 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 184   @ Abilene Christian L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 23, 2025 151   Utah Valley W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 218   @ Southern Utah L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 30, 2025 184   Abilene Christian W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 06, 2025 218   Southern Utah W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 08, 2025 69   Grand Canyon L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 13, 2025 145   @ Texas Arlington L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 276   Utah Tech W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 69   @ Grand Canyon L 62-73 18%    
  Feb 27, 2025 127   @ Seattle L 62-67 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 276   @ Utah Tech W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 221   Tarleton St. W 69-63 69%    
  Mar 08, 2025 145   Texas Arlington W 71-69 57%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.7 2.0 0.8 0.2 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.7 3.7 1.3 0.2 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.2 5.7 2.0 0.2 14.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 5.0 5.2 1.4 0.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.7 4.8 1.2 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.5 9th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.5 5.8 8.0 10.1 11.9 12.7 12.3 10.9 8.7 6.3 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
14-2 91.4% 2.0    1.6 0.4
13-3 67.8% 2.7    1.7 0.9 0.1
12-4 35.2% 2.2    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
11-5 12.3% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 69.9% 57.5% 12.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 29.2%
15-1 0.8% 54.2% 46.6% 7.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14.3%
14-2 2.2% 41.3% 39.1% 2.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.5%
13-3 4.0% 33.2% 32.7% 0.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.8%
12-4 6.3% 24.2% 24.1% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.8 0.2%
11-5 8.7% 18.1% 18.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.1
10-6 10.9% 11.1% 11.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.7
9-7 12.3% 6.3% 6.3% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.5
8-8 12.7% 3.1% 3.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.3
7-9 11.9% 1.6% 1.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.7
6-10 10.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1
5-11 8.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.0
4-12 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
3-13 3.5% 3.5
2-14 1.9% 1.9
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 8.5% 8.4% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.2 91.5 0.2%