Preseason Rankings
Connecticut
Big East
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.2#1
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.8#331
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.6#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 11.2% 11.2% 6.7%
#1 Seed 37.9% 37.9% 13.3%
Top 2 Seed 59.2% 59.2% 17.0%
Top 4 Seed 78.6% 78.6% 43.0%
Top 6 Seed 88.2% 88.2% 47.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.9% 96.9% 80.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.6% 94.6% 74.3%
Average Seed 2.8 2.8 5.1
.500 or above 99.1% 99.1% 88.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 97.6% 88.1%
Conference Champion 58.8% 58.8% 35.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
First Round96.5% 96.6% 80.7%
Second Round88.0% 88.0% 54.8%
Sweet Sixteen65.8% 65.8% 24.4%
Elite Eight44.9% 44.9% 6.7%
Final Four28.8% 28.9% 6.7%
Championship Game18.0% 18.0% 6.7%
National Champion10.9% 10.9% 3.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 5
Quad 27 - 116 - 6
Quad 34 - 020 - 6
Quad 45 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 334   Sacred Heart W 88-54 99.9%   
  Nov 09, 2024 305   New Hampshire W 86-55 99.8%   
  Nov 13, 2024 335   Le Moyne W 85-51 99.9%   
  Nov 19, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 85-48 99.9%   
  Nov 25, 2024 42   Memphis W 78-69 80%    
  Nov 30, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-46 99.9%   
  Dec 04, 2024 9   Baylor W 72-65 73%    
  Dec 08, 2024 17   @ Texas W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 13, 2024 6   Gonzaga W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 18, 2024 28   Xavier W 79-68 84%    
  Dec 21, 2024 72   @ Butler W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 01, 2025 122   @ DePaul W 77-62 89%    
  Jan 05, 2025 48   Providence W 74-61 87%    
  Jan 08, 2025 37   @ Villanova W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 101   @ Georgetown W 76-64 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 13   Creighton W 74-65 76%    
  Jan 21, 2025 72   Butler W 78-63 90%    
  Jan 25, 2025 28   @ Xavier W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 29, 2025 122   DePaul W 80-59 96%    
  Feb 01, 2025 26   @ Marquette W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 07, 2025 18   St. John's W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 11, 2025 13   @ Creighton W 71-68 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 68   @ Seton Hall W 71-62 77%    
  Feb 18, 2025 37   Villanova W 70-58 84%    
  Feb 23, 2025 18   @ St. John's W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 101   Georgetown W 79-61 92%    
  Mar 01, 2025 48   @ Providence W 71-64 72%    
  Mar 04, 2025 26   Marquette W 76-65 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 68   Seton Hall W 74-59 89%    
Projected Record 24 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 9.1 12.9 14.0 11.5 5.5 58.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.9 5.8 4.8 2.2 0.4 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.5 6.8 8.9 11.5 14.2 15.1 14.5 11.5 5.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 5.5    5.5
19-1 100.0% 11.5    11.4 0.1
18-2 97.0% 14.0    12.9 1.1 0.0
17-3 85.4% 12.9    10.3 2.5 0.1
16-4 64.4% 9.1    5.7 3.0 0.4 0.0
15-5 36.7% 4.2    1.9 1.8 0.5 0.0
14-6 14.5% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 58.8% 58.8 47.9 9.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 5.5% 100.0% 76.9% 23.1% 1.1 4.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
19-1 11.5% 100.0% 66.9% 33.1% 1.2 9.5 2.0 0.1 100.0%
18-2 14.5% 100.0% 58.0% 42.0% 1.3 10.1 3.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 15.1% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 1.7 7.6 5.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.2% 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% 2.2 4.1 5.3 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.5% 100.0% 32.9% 67.0% 3.1 1.4 2.9 3.3 2.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 8.9% 99.8% 25.9% 74.0% 4.2 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 6.8% 98.7% 21.4% 77.2% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.3%
12-8 4.5% 95.6% 16.3% 79.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 94.8%
11-9 3.2% 87.8% 10.8% 77.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 86.3%
10-10 2.0% 72.6% 7.4% 65.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 70.4%
9-11 1.2% 40.0% 4.5% 35.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 37.1%
8-12 0.6% 11.9% 1.4% 10.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 10.7%
7-13 0.3% 3.5% 1.7% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9%
6-14 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.9% 42.4% 54.5% 2.8 37.9 21.3 11.5 7.9 5.4 4.2 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 94.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.7 7.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.4 6.8 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.4 11.6