Preseason Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#59
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.9#340
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.4% 5.5% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 9.9% 10.0% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.8% 33.0% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.9% 15.9% 5.5%
Average Seed 8.2 8.2 10.0
.500 or above 89.7% 89.9% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 86.3% 60.0%
Conference Champion 27.5% 27.6% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.9% 4.8%
First Four2.9% 2.9% 1.0%
First Round31.5% 31.7% 12.7%
Second Round17.2% 17.3% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen7.2% 7.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.0% 0.3%
Final Four1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 35 - 6
Quad 38 - 314 - 9
Quad 47 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 354   St. Francis (PA) W 78-52 99%    
  Nov 09, 2024 60   Northwestern W 65-62 61%    
  Nov 13, 2024 240   Ball St. W 75-59 93%    
  Nov 20, 2024 161   New Mexico St. W 72-60 86%    
  Nov 25, 2024 7   North Carolina L 68-75 25%    
  Dec 03, 2024 311   Western Michigan W 79-59 96%    
  Dec 07, 2024 264   Lehigh W 78-61 93%    
  Dec 14, 2024 26   Marquette L 69-70 50%    
  Dec 17, 2024 95   UNLV W 69-63 70%    
  Dec 20, 2024 27   Cincinnati L 66-69 41%    
  Dec 31, 2024 173   La Salle W 73-60 86%    
  Jan 04, 2025 150   @ George Washington W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 08, 2025 116   @ Massachusetts W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 15, 2025 96   George Mason W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 100   Loyola Chicago W 71-64 70%    
  Jan 21, 2025 128   @ Duquesne W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 24, 2025 90   Saint Joseph's W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 28, 2025 120   @ St. Bonaventure W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 31, 2025 94   @ Saint Louis W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 04, 2025 135   Davidson W 70-60 80%    
  Feb 07, 2025 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 12, 2025 159   @ Fordham W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 128   Duquesne W 70-60 79%    
  Feb 21, 2025 100   @ Loyola Chicago W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 142   @ Rhode Island W 72-67 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 133   Richmond W 70-60 79%    
  Mar 04, 2025 94   Saint Louis W 75-69 69%    
  Mar 07, 2025 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-65 47%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.2 7.5 6.9 4.3 1.5 27.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.3 5.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.6 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 3.5 1.1 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.7 0.2 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.2 6.9 8.9 10.8 11.9 12.5 12.0 10.1 7.4 4.3 1.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 99.7% 4.3    4.1 0.1
16-2 93.0% 6.9    5.7 1.1 0.0
15-3 73.8% 7.5    4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 43.2% 5.2    2.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.4% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 18.4 6.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 98.7% 62.9% 35.7% 3.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.4%
17-1 4.3% 94.3% 52.1% 42.2% 4.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 88.2%
16-2 7.4% 83.4% 44.3% 39.1% 6.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.2 70.2%
15-3 10.1% 68.2% 36.7% 31.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.2 49.8%
14-4 12.0% 47.9% 28.2% 19.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.2 27.5%
13-5 12.5% 31.7% 21.9% 9.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 12.6%
12-6 11.9% 20.0% 15.8% 4.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.5 5.0%
11-7 10.8% 11.1% 9.9% 1.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.6 1.3%
10-8 8.9% 6.5% 6.3% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.2%
9-9 6.9% 3.7% 3.6% 0.1% 12.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.6 0.1%
8-10 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1
7-11 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
6-12 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 32.8% 20.2% 12.7% 8.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 3.1 4.3 7.0 3.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 67.2 15.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 52.7 30.7 9.7 5.8 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.3 18.4 48.7 13.2 19.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.4 29.2 37.5 33.3