Preseason Rankings
Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#97
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.5#141
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#121
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.4% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 3.0% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.2% 18.7% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 7.9% 2.5%
Average Seed 9.9 9.6 10.9
.500 or above 69.1% 77.7% 54.2%
.500 or above in Conference 68.7% 73.8% 59.7%
Conference Champion 11.7% 14.3% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.9% 4.5%
First Four2.2% 2.8% 1.2%
First Round14.2% 17.3% 8.6%
Second Round6.1% 7.9% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.8% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Neutral) - 63.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 44 - 8
Quad 37 - 411 - 12
Quad 46 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 132   Indiana St. W 79-75 64%    
  Nov 12, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 71-76 32%    
  Nov 15, 2024 117   @ College of Charleston L 77-78 49%    
  Nov 16, 2024 110   Liberty W 70-68 57%    
  Nov 21, 2024 87   Oklahoma St. L 71-72 46%    
  Nov 30, 2024 206   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-63 84%    
  Dec 04, 2024 275   @ Florida International W 80-72 76%    
  Dec 10, 2024 222   Jacksonville W 76-64 85%    
  Dec 14, 2024 185   Texas St. W 76-66 80%    
  Dec 21, 2024 24   @ Michigan St. L 64-74 20%    
  Jan 02, 2025 42   Memphis L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 05, 2025 137   @ East Carolina W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 08, 2025 126   @ Charlotte W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 12, 2025 88   UAB W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 175   @ Tulane W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 19, 2025 211   Rice W 78-67 83%    
  Jan 26, 2025 86   @ North Texas L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 232   Texas San Antonio W 84-72 85%    
  Feb 02, 2025 102   South Florida W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 148   @ Tulsa W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 10, 2025 126   Charlotte W 70-63 71%    
  Feb 16, 2025 130   @ Temple W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 20, 2025 105   Wichita St. W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 23, 2025 42   @ Memphis L 74-82 26%    
  Feb 27, 2025 86   North Texas W 66-64 57%    
  Mar 02, 2025 102   @ South Florida L 71-74 42%    
  Mar 06, 2025 88   @ UAB L 73-77 37%    
  Mar 09, 2025 137   East Carolina W 73-66 73%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 3.4 2.5 1.1 0.3 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.7 2.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 11.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 4.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.7 0.8 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.5 1.2 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 1.5 0.2 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.9 7.9 9.3 10.8 11.6 11.3 10.6 8.8 6.9 4.7 2.7 1.1 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.8% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 93.1% 2.5    2.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 73.0% 3.4    2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.0% 2.8    1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 14.2% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 7.2 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 97.4% 61.6% 35.8% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.2%
17-1 1.1% 89.1% 46.3% 42.8% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 79.7%
16-2 2.7% 78.6% 42.3% 36.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 62.9%
15-3 4.7% 61.9% 32.3% 29.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 43.7%
14-4 6.9% 40.8% 24.3% 16.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.1 21.8%
13-5 8.8% 26.0% 18.0% 8.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.5 9.7%
12-6 10.6% 15.9% 12.9% 2.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.9 3.4%
11-7 11.3% 8.7% 7.7% 1.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 1.1%
10-8 11.6% 4.7% 4.4% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.3%
9-9 10.8% 3.2% 3.2% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4
8-10 9.3% 1.4% 1.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2
7-11 7.9% 1.1% 1.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8
6-12 5.9% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
5-13 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 2.4% 2.4
3-15 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.2% 10.0% 5.3% 9.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.9 4.3 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 84.8 5.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 40.0 37.8 16.7 5.6