Preseason Rankings
George Mason
Atlantic 10
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#96
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.6#343
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#109
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#80
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 15.2% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 5.4% 1.2%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 11.3
.500 or above 82.7% 85.0% 60.6%
.500 or above in Conference 75.0% 76.8% 58.6%
Conference Champion 14.1% 14.9% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.1% 5.9%
First Four1.9% 2.0% 0.5%
First Round13.4% 14.2% 5.9%
Second Round5.4% 5.9% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 90.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 34 - 7
Quad 37 - 411 - 11
Quad 49 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 256   NC Central W 73-59 90%    
  Nov 08, 2024 26   @ Marquette L 64-73 20%    
  Nov 11, 2024 260   Stony Brook W 73-59 90%    
  Nov 13, 2024 277   Central Michigan W 70-56 90%    
  Nov 16, 2024 137   @ East Carolina W 65-64 55%    
  Nov 20, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 76-49 99%    
  Nov 29, 2024 107   @ James Madison L 68-69 46%    
  Dec 03, 2024 186   UNC Asheville W 73-63 81%    
  Dec 07, 2024 175   Tulane W 78-69 79%    
  Dec 17, 2024 4   @ Duke L 59-74 9%    
  Dec 22, 2024 166   Penn W 71-62 78%    
  Dec 28, 2024 270   Mount St. Mary's W 74-60 89%    
  Dec 31, 2024 135   Davidson W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 04, 2025 142   @ Rhode Island W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 08, 2025 133   Richmond W 68-61 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 116   Massachusetts W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 59   @ Dayton L 61-67 30%    
  Jan 18, 2025 150   George Washington W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 21, 2025 120   @ St. Bonaventure W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 100   Loyola Chicago W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 135   @ Davidson W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 05, 2025 150   @ George Washington W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 142   Rhode Island W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 11, 2025 94   @ Saint Louis L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 90   Saint Joseph's W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 26, 2025 159   Fordham W 72-63 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 128   @ Duquesne W 65-64 52%    
  Mar 05, 2025 173   La Salle W 71-62 78%    
  Mar 08, 2025 133   @ Richmond W 65-64 53%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 3.2 4.0 3.2 1.6 0.5 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 4.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.5 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.7 1.0 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.2 1.2 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.1 1.5 0.1 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.0 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.7 0.2 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.4 6.3 8.3 9.9 11.3 11.8 11.6 10.3 8.7 5.8 3.6 1.7 0.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 98.6% 1.6    1.6 0.1 0.0
16-2 89.6% 3.2    2.5 0.7 0.0
15-3 69.5% 4.0    2.3 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 36.7% 3.2    1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 8.3 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 92.1% 44.4% 47.7% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.8%
17-1 1.7% 83.4% 39.1% 44.3% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 72.7%
16-2 3.6% 64.7% 30.4% 34.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.3 49.3%
15-3 5.8% 46.9% 27.1% 19.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.1 27.1%
14-4 8.7% 30.4% 21.9% 8.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.0 10.8%
13-5 10.3% 18.6% 15.9% 2.6% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 3.1%
12-6 11.6% 11.8% 11.0% 0.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.2 0.9%
11-7 11.8% 6.4% 6.2% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.0 0.2%
10-8 11.3% 3.3% 3.3% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.1%
9-9 9.9% 2.3% 2.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7
8-10 8.3% 1.4% 1.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
7-11 6.3% 0.4% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
6-12 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
5-13 2.8% 2.8
4-14 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 9.8% 4.5% 10.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 4.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.7 5.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 28.6 54.3 17.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.2 40.0 60.0