IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	+16.9	#6
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.3	#94
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+11.4	#2

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.4	#33

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.4%	3.2%	1.0%
#1 Seed	12.3%	16.0%	5.9%
Top 2 Seed	24.8%	31.3%	13.6%
Top 4 Seed	44.9%	53.7%	29.5%
Top 6 Seed	59.1%	68.0%	43.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid	86.4%	91.3%	78.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	70.3%	79.1%	57.8%
Average Seed	5.0	4.5	6.0

.500 or above	99.6%	99.9%	99.1%
.500 or above in Conference	99.6%	99.8%	99.3%
Conference Champion	68.4%	72.7%	60.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	2.7%	2.2%	3.5%
First Round	85.3%	90.3%	76.6%
Second Round	67.8%	74.7%	55.7%
Sweet Sixteen	42.8%	49.3%	31.5%
Elite Eight	25.2%	30.0%	17.0%
Final Four	14.3%	17.4%	8.9%
Championship Game	7.7%	9.5%	4.5%
National Champion	4.2%	5.4%	2.1%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 2	2 - 2
Quad 1b	3 - 1	5 - 4
Quad 2	5 - 1	10 - 5
Quad 3	7 - 1	17 - 5
Quad 4	8 - 0	25 - 6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	9	Baylor	W	77-73	64%
Nov 10, 2024	73	Arizona St.	W	83-71	87%
Nov 15, 2024	143	Umass Lowell	W	88-69	96%
Nov 18, 2024	47	@ San Diego St.	W	74-70	64%
Nov 20, 2024	245	Long Beach St.	W	93-69	98%
Nov 27, 2024	65	West Virginia	W	81-73	77%
Dec 07, 2024	16	Kentucky	W	85-82	61%
Dec 13, 2024	1	Connecticut	L	71-74	39%
Dec 18, 2024	215	Nicholls St.	W	86-63	97%
Dec 21, 2024	268	Bucknell	W	84-59	98%
Dec 28, 2024	23	UCLA	W	72-68	65%
Dec 30, 2024	217	@ Pepperdine	W	84-67	92%
Jan 02, 2025	271	Portland	W	90-65	98%
Jan 04, 2025	141	@ Loyola Marymount	W	81-68	86%
Jan 08, 2025	282	San Diego	W	92-66	98%
Jan 11, 2025	91	Washington St.	W	78-65	87%
Jan 16, 2025	123	@ Oregon St.	W	78-67	82%
Jan 18, 2025	98	Santa Clara	W	86-72	88%
Jan 25, 2025	271	@ Portland	W	87-68	94%
Jan 28, 2025	123	Oregon St.	W	81-64	93%
Feb 01, 2025	35	@ St. Mary's	W	70-67	59%
Feb 06, 2025	141	Loyola Marymount	W	84-65	94%
Feb 08, 2025	314	@ Pacific	W	88-66	96%
Feb 13, 2025	82	San Francisco	W	82-69	85%
Feb 15, 2025	217	Pepperdine	W	87-64	97%
Feb 19, 2025	91	@ Washington St.	W	75-68	73%
Feb 22, 2025	35	St. Mary's	W	73-64	77%
Feb 27, 2025	98	@ Santa Clara	W	83-75	75%
Mar 01, 2025	82	@ San Francisco	W	79-72	70%
Projected Record						24 - 5	15 - 3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected West Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.5	3.5	10.7	18.6	21.1	14.0		68.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.7	3.4	6.5	5.7	2.1				18.5	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.5	2.3	2.9	1.4	0.2					7.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.0	0.3	1.1	1.3	0.4	0.0						3.2	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1								1.5	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0								0.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0										0.3	7th
8th						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0											0.1	8th
9th						0.0	0.0	0.0													0.0	9th
10th						0.0															0.0	10th
11th																						11th

Total						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.3	2.3	4.5	7.1	11.4	16.6	20.8	21.1	14.0			Total

West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	14.0		14.0
17-1	100.0%	21.1		20.0	1.1
16-2	89.7%	18.6		14.7	3.9	0.1
15-3	64.4%	10.7		5.9	4.2	0.6	0.0
14-4	30.3%	3.5		1.2	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	6.9%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.6%	0.0			0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	68.4%	68.4		55.8	11.0	1.4	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	14.0%		99.9%	80.0%	19.9%	1.8		7.0	4.4	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.7%
17-1	21.1%		99.6%	69.5%	30.1%	2.9		4.5	5.8	4.3	3.2	1.5	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0						0.1		98.8%
16-2	20.8%		97.6%	59.4%	38.2%	4.8		0.7	2.2	3.6	4.1	3.2	2.3	1.6	1.1	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.0					0.5		94.1%
15-3	16.6%		92.1%	49.6%	42.5%	6.8		0.0	0.2	0.8	1.6	2.2	2.3	2.2	1.9	1.6	1.4	0.9	0.1					1.3		84.4%
14-4	11.4%		78.9%	39.9%	39.0%	8.5			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.1	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.3	0.2	0.0				2.4		64.9%
13-5	7.1%		60.9%	30.0%	30.9%	9.5				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.8	1.1	1.2	0.2	0.0				2.8		44.1%
12-6	4.5%		40.3%	19.7%	20.7%	10.2					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.2	0.0				2.7		25.7%
11-7	2.3%		22.8%	12.1%	10.7%	10.8							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			1.8		12.2%
10-8	1.3%		13.1%	8.7%	4.4%	11.3								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				1.1		4.8%
9-9	0.6%		6.8%	5.1%	1.7%	11.5											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.6		1.8%
8-10	0.2%		4.5%	4.5%		11.8											0.0		0.0	0.0				0.2
7-11	0.1%		2.5%	2.5%		15.0																0.0		0.1
6-12	0.0%																							0.0
5-13	0.0%																							0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		86.4%	54.4%	32.0%	5.0		12.3	12.6	10.3	9.8	7.7	6.4	5.7	5.4	5.1	5.4	4.7	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0		13.6		70.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	2.3%	100.0%	1.3	74.6	23.9	1.5	0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%	100.0%	1.4	68.6	25.4	4.1	2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.6	50.8	40.5	4.5	4.1