Preseason Rankings
Houston
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#3
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.5#351
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+10.6#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.3% 9.3% 4.6%
#1 Seed 30.2% 30.3% 7.8%
Top 2 Seed 50.5% 50.6% 13.9%
Top 4 Seed 73.1% 73.2% 32.7%
Top 6 Seed 84.1% 84.1% 45.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.4% 94.4% 76.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.9% 92.9% 75.3%
Average Seed 3.1 3.1 5.7
.500 or above 97.2% 97.2% 79.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.8% 91.8% 75.1%
Conference Champion 28.4% 28.4% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four1.5% 1.5% 5.8%
First Round93.7% 93.7% 72.5%
Second Round83.1% 83.1% 54.3%
Sweet Sixteen58.6% 58.6% 37.3%
Elite Eight37.4% 37.5% 21.4%
Final Four22.4% 22.4% 4.6%
Championship Game13.0% 13.0% 3.2%
National Champion7.4% 7.4% 3.2%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 7
Quad 27 - 116 - 8
Quad 35 - 021 - 8
Quad 44 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 81-51 99.8%   
  Nov 09, 2024 10   Auburn W 70-67 59%    
  Nov 13, 2024 156   Louisiana W 76-55 98%    
  Nov 22, 2024 155   Hofstra W 74-53 97%    
  Nov 26, 2024 5   Alabama W 74-73 51%    
  Nov 28, 2024 66   Notre Dame W 67-57 82%    
  Nov 30, 2024 29   Rutgers W 67-60 72%    
  Dec 07, 2024 72   Butler W 74-60 89%    
  Dec 10, 2024 129   Troy W 77-57 96%    
  Dec 18, 2024 168   Toledo W 81-59 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 219   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 78-53 98%    
  Dec 30, 2024 87   @ Oklahoma St. W 69-60 77%    
  Jan 04, 2025 32   BYU W 73-63 81%    
  Jan 06, 2025 53   TCU W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 39   @ Kansas St. W 67-62 65%    
  Jan 15, 2025 65   West Virginia W 73-60 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 70-62 74%    
  Jan 21, 2025 77   Utah W 75-61 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 2   @ Kansas L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 29, 2025 65   @ West Virginia W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 21   Texas Tech W 70-61 77%    
  Feb 04, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 72-57 89%    
  Feb 08, 2025 79   @ Colorado W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 10, 2025 9   Baylor W 69-63 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 18, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 8   Iowa St. W 67-61 68%    
  Feb 24, 2025 21   @ Texas Tech W 67-64 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 27   Cincinnati W 70-60 79%    
  Mar 03, 2025 2   Kansas W 69-66 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 9   @ Baylor L 65-66 48%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.0 7.6 7.5 4.4 1.7 28.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.5 5.7 3.0 0.6 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.0 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 4.1 3.4 0.9 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.9 0.8 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.6 10.3 12.0 12.4 12.1 10.7 8.1 4.4 1.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
19-1 99.5% 4.4    4.2 0.2
18-2 93.1% 7.5    6.2 1.3 0.0
17-3 70.5% 7.6    4.8 2.5 0.3 0.0
16-4 41.0% 5.0    2.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 14.4% 1.8    0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.4% 28.4 19.5 6.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.7% 100.0% 64.2% 35.8% 1.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.4% 100.0% 51.2% 48.8% 1.1 3.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.1% 100.0% 44.1% 55.9% 1.2 6.5 1.6 0.1 100.0%
17-3 10.7% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.4 7.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.1% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.7 5.9 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.4% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 2.2 3.4 4.7 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.0% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 2.9 1.3 3.5 3.7 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.3% 99.9% 10.8% 89.1% 3.8 0.4 1.6 2.8 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 8.6% 99.6% 6.9% 92.8% 4.8 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-9 6.6% 97.4% 3.8% 93.6% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.3%
10-10 4.8% 89.9% 3.1% 86.8% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 89.6%
9-11 3.2% 68.1% 1.5% 66.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 67.7%
8-12 2.2% 40.1% 0.6% 39.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 39.7%
7-13 1.4% 14.0% 0.3% 13.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 13.8%
6-14 0.7% 2.9% 2.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.9%
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 94.4% 20.7% 73.6% 3.1 30.2 20.3 13.2 9.3 6.4 4.5 3.2 2.3 1.8 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.6 92.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 94.8 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.8 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 91.1 8.9