Preseason Rankings
Idaho St.
Big Sky
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#315
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.5#345
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#313
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#291
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 5.9% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 12.1% 35.7% 11.2%
.500 or above in Conference 25.9% 46.6% 25.1%
Conference Champion 2.4% 7.9% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 29.2% 14.1% 29.8%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.1%
First Round2.1% 5.5% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 47 - 99 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 73   @ Arizona St. L 58-77 4%    
  Nov 07, 2024 46   @ USC L 58-79 3%    
  Nov 16, 2024 282   @ San Diego L 67-72 31%    
  Nov 18, 2024 244   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 60-67 26%    
  Nov 20, 2024 23   @ UCLA L 50-74 2%    
  Dec 04, 2024 274   @ South Dakota L 67-73 31%    
  Dec 07, 2024 225   Oral Roberts L 67-69 43%    
  Dec 18, 2024 151   Utah Valley L 62-68 31%    
  Jan 02, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 226   @ Northern Colorado L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 11, 2025 179   Weber St. L 63-68 35%    
  Jan 16, 2025 149   Montana St. L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 18, 2025 190   Montana L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 23, 2025 300   @ Sacramento St. L 60-64 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 257   @ Portland St. L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 30, 2025 262   Eastern Washington L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 279   Idaho W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 03, 2025 226   Northern Colorado L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 179   @ Weber St. L 60-71 19%    
  Feb 13, 2025 190   @ Montana L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 149   @ Montana St. L 62-74 16%    
  Feb 20, 2025 257   Portland St. L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 300   Sacramento St. W 63-61 56%    
  Feb 27, 2025 279   @ Idaho L 61-67 32%    
  Mar 01, 2025 262   @ Eastern Washington L 68-74 30%    
  Mar 03, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 69-68 52%    
Projected Record 8 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 5.6 2.6 0.3 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.9 5.5 5.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 17.1 9th
10th 1.1 3.2 5.5 5.7 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 20.8 10th
Total 1.1 3.2 6.2 8.7 10.7 11.8 11.7 10.7 9.8 8.3 6.3 4.6 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 93.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 88.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 64.0% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 32.3% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 44.7% 44.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 35.4% 35.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 29.0% 29.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.1% 23.3% 23.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 1.9% 15.7% 15.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.6
12-6 3.0% 12.3% 12.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.6
11-7 4.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.2
10-8 6.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.0
9-9 8.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.0
8-10 9.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.6
7-11 10.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.6
6-12 11.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.7
5-13 11.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.7
4-14 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
3-15 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.7
2-16 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.2
1-17 3.2% 3.2
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%