IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Incarnate Word
Southland
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.9	#329
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.4	#56
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.0	#300

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.8	#350

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.0%	2.4%	0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	15.1	15.6

.500 or above	26.9%	52.1%	23.8%
.500 or above in Conference	39.5%	57.4%	37.4%
Conference Champion	1.1%	2.9%	0.9%
Last Place in Conference	9.3%	4.0%	10.0%

First Four	0.4%	0.6%	0.4%
First Round	0.8%	2.2%	0.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 10.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 7
Quad 4	10 - 10	11 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	163	@ California Baptist	L	63-76	11%
Nov 12, 2024	344	Prairie View	W	80-75	67%
Nov 16, 2024	358	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	81-80	55%
Nov 22, 2024	286	@ Northern Arizona	L	73-80	26%
Nov 25, 2024	223	@ South Alabama	L	70-80	19%
Nov 27, 2024	294	Western Illinois	L	68-71	39%
Dec 05, 2024	333	Northwestern St.	W	77-73	62%
Dec 07, 2024	355	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	75-68	72%
Dec 10, 2024	4	@ Duke	L	58-89	0.3%
Jan 04, 2025	164	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	69-82	14%
Jan 06, 2025	283	@ Lamar	L	72-79	28%
Jan 11, 2025	357	@ Houston Christian	W	81-80	54%
Jan 13, 2025	215	Nicholls St.	L	72-76	36%
Jan 18, 2025	219	TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	73-77	38%
Jan 20, 2025	284	UT Rio Grande Valley	L	79-80	47%
Jan 25, 2025	292	@ SE Louisiana	L	68-74	30%
Jan 27, 2025	346	@ New Orleans	L	79-80	47%
Feb 01, 2025	357	Houston Christian	W	84-77	72%
Feb 03, 2025	99	@ McNeese St.	L	64-82	6%
Feb 08, 2025	292	SE Louisiana	L	71-72	50%
Feb 10, 2025	346	New Orleans	W	82-77	67%
Feb 15, 2025	219	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	70-80	21%
Feb 17, 2025	284	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	76-83	29%
Feb 22, 2025	164	Stephen F. Austin	L	72-79	29%
Feb 24, 2025	283	Lamar	L	75-76	47%
Mar 01, 2025	355	@ Texas A&M - Commerce	W	72-71	53%
Mar 03, 2025	333	Northwestern St.	W	77-73	61%
Projected Record						11 - 16	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0			4.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	1.1	2.1	1.9	0.8	0.2	0.0					6.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	1.8	3.1	2.1	0.7	0.1							8.2	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	2.5	4.0	2.4	0.6	0.0	0.0							10.0	5th
6th								0.0	0.6	2.9	4.6	2.4	0.4	0.0									11.0	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.4	4.9	2.4	0.4	0.0										11.8	7th
8th						0.1	0.8	3.5	4.9	2.3	0.3	0.0											11.8	8th
9th					0.1	0.9	3.5	4.6	2.2	0.3	0.0												11.6	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	1.2	3.3	3.7	1.5	0.2	0.0													10.1	10th
11th		0.0	0.3	1.5	3.0	2.7	1.0	0.1	0.0														8.6	11th
12th	0.2	0.7	1.4	1.7	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0															5.6	12th

Total	0.2	0.7	1.7	3.4	5.5	7.3	9.2	10.4	11.3	10.9	10.1	8.9	7.1	5.3	3.7	2.2	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	91.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0
18-2	74.5%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
17-3	52.4%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
16-4	23.7%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.1
15-5	7.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	1.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.0%	0.0				0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.1%	1.1		0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		17.2%	17.2%		12.0													0.0					0.0
19-1	0.1%		33.6%	33.6%		13.5														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
18-2	0.2%		19.1%	19.1%		14.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
17-3	0.6%		19.0%	19.0%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.5
16-4	1.3%		12.8%	12.8%		15.3															0.0	0.1	0.1	1.1
15-5	2.2%		8.1%	8.1%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.1
14-6	3.7%		5.2%	5.2%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	3.5
13-7	5.3%		2.6%	2.6%		15.9																0.0	0.1	5.1
12-8	7.1%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	7.0
11-9	8.9%		0.4%	0.4%		15.9																0.0	0.0	8.9
10-10	10.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
9-11	10.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
8-12	11.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.3
7-13	10.4%																							10.4
6-14	9.2%																							9.2
5-15	7.3%																							7.3
4-16	5.5%																							5.5
3-17	3.4%																							3.4
2-18	1.7%																							1.7
1-19	0.7%																							0.7
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	15.5													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	99.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%