Preseason Rankings
Kansas St.
Big 12
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#39
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#179
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#60
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 5.1% 5.1% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 13.6% 13.7% 3.6%
Top 6 Seed 23.8% 23.9% 6.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.9% 50.0% 21.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.4% 48.6% 21.0%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 7.8
.500 or above 69.1% 69.3% 32.7%
.500 or above in Conference 48.9% 49.1% 26.2%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 6.5% 17.2%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 3.3%
First Round47.4% 47.6% 20.1%
Second Round31.0% 31.2% 9.0%
Sweet Sixteen14.5% 14.6% 3.4%
Elite Eight6.8% 6.8% 1.6%
Final Four3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 10
Quad 24 - 39 - 12
Quad 34 - 113 - 13
Quad 45 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 346   New Orleans W 88-62 99%    
  Nov 09, 2024 213   Cleveland St. W 78-61 94%    
  Nov 14, 2024 54   LSU W 75-70 66%    
  Nov 19, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 81-47 99.9%   
  Nov 22, 2024 150   George Washington W 81-70 83%    
  Dec 01, 2024 358   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 89-61 99%    
  Dec 07, 2024 18   @ St. John's L 70-75 34%    
  Dec 17, 2024 106   Drake W 75-65 80%    
  Dec 21, 2024 105   @ Wichita St. W 72-69 62%    
  Dec 30, 2024 27   Cincinnati W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 04, 2025 53   @ TCU L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 07, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 3   Houston L 62-67 35%    
  Jan 14, 2025 21   Texas Tech W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 18, 2025 2   @ Kansas L 67-78 18%    
  Jan 22, 2025 9   @ Baylor L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 65   West Virginia W 75-69 67%    
  Jan 29, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 64-72 25%    
  Feb 04, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 2   Kansas L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 11, 2025 11   Arizona L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 32   @ BYU L 71-75 38%    
  Feb 17, 2025 77   @ Utah W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 23, 2025 73   Arizona St. W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 26, 2025 71   @ Central Florida W 71-70 50%    
  Mar 02, 2025 79   Colorado W 74-67 71%    
  Mar 05, 2025 27   @ Cincinnati L 68-72 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 67-69 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.2 1.0 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.9 2.1 0.2 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.1 0.8 0.1 7.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.9 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.6 16th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.0 5.9 7.6 8.9 9.9 10.5 10.3 9.6 8.6 7.0 5.3 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 93.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 71.6% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1
16-4 38.2% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 11.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 1.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.3% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 2.5 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.6% 99.9% 13.3% 86.6% 3.3 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 5.3% 99.9% 8.5% 91.4% 4.4 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 7.0% 99.3% 5.0% 94.3% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
12-8 8.6% 96.9% 2.9% 94.0% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.8%
11-9 9.6% 87.8% 1.5% 86.3% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 87.7%
10-10 10.3% 68.9% 1.0% 67.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.2 68.5%
9-11 10.5% 39.4% 0.5% 38.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.4 39.1%
8-12 9.9% 12.8% 0.2% 12.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 8.6 12.7%
7-13 8.9% 2.4% 0.1% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.7 2.2%
6-14 7.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.1%
5-15 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 5.9
4-16 4.0% 4.0
3-17 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 49.9% 2.9% 47.0% 6.6 2.0 3.1 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.8 5.7 4.7 4.4 4.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 50.1 48.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 82.6 17.4