Preseason Rankings
Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#16
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.9#13
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#56
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 2.2% 0.3%
#1 Seed 8.7% 9.0% 1.8%
Top 2 Seed 18.5% 19.1% 5.3%
Top 4 Seed 37.7% 38.7% 14.4%
Top 6 Seed 53.7% 55.0% 26.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.6% 75.7% 50.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.5% 73.6% 48.6%
Average Seed 4.9 4.9 6.4
.500 or above 85.2% 86.3% 60.7%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 67.9% 46.2%
Conference Champion 9.8% 10.1% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 3.3% 8.4%
First Four3.7% 3.6% 4.9%
First Round72.8% 73.9% 47.6%
Second Round54.5% 55.6% 30.2%
Sweet Sixteen30.1% 30.8% 13.4%
Elite Eight15.0% 15.5% 5.3%
Final Four7.1% 7.3% 2.3%
Championship Game3.4% 3.5% 1.0%
National Champion1.6% 1.6% 0.4%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 95.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 37 - 9
Quad 25 - 211 - 11
Quad 34 - 116 - 12
Quad 45 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 196   Wright St. W 96-78 96%    
  Nov 09, 2024 268   Bucknell W 85-63 98%    
  Nov 12, 2024 4   Duke L 76-81 34%    
  Nov 19, 2024 158   Lipscomb W 92-76 93%    
  Nov 22, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 92-67 99%    
  Nov 26, 2024 115   Western Kentucky W 95-82 88%    
  Nov 29, 2024 204   Georgia St. W 90-71 95%    
  Dec 03, 2024 43   @ Clemson W 78-77 51%    
  Dec 07, 2024 6   Gonzaga L 82-85 39%    
  Dec 11, 2024 171   Colgate W 85-68 93%    
  Dec 14, 2024 50   Louisville W 86-79 73%    
  Dec 21, 2024 31   Ohio St. W 79-77 56%    
  Dec 31, 2024 181   Brown W 87-70 93%    
  Jan 04, 2025 25   Florida W 88-84 64%    
  Jan 07, 2025 61   @ Georgia W 81-79 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 33   @ Mississippi St. L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 14, 2025 19   Texas A&M W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 5   Alabama L 88-90 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 89   @ Vanderbilt W 80-76 62%    
  Jan 28, 2025 14   @ Tennessee L 78-82 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 15   Arkansas W 85-82 59%    
  Feb 04, 2025 40   @ Mississippi L 80-81 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 64   South Carolina W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 11, 2025 14   Tennessee W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 17   @ Texas L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 89   Vanderbilt W 83-73 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 85-93 26%    
  Feb 26, 2025 55   @ Oklahoma W 79-78 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 10   Auburn W 83-82 52%    
  Mar 04, 2025 54   LSU W 85-78 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 58   @ Missouri W 80-79 55%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.3 9.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.4 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 8.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.6 1.0 0.1 8.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.4 3.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.1 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.1 0.2 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.2 2.9 0.4 0.0 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.1 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.2 6.2 7.9 9.7 10.9 11.6 11.1 10.2 8.6 6.5 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.7% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 89.4% 2.1    1.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 68.8% 2.9    1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.7% 2.3    0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.6 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.3% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.6 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.5% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2.1 1.9 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.6% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 2.8 1.1 2.5 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.2% 99.9% 10.5% 89.4% 3.7 0.4 1.5 2.9 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 11.1% 99.2% 5.7% 93.5% 4.9 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
10-8 11.6% 96.5% 3.0% 93.5% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 96.4%
9-9 10.9% 87.9% 2.0% 85.9% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 87.7%
8-10 9.7% 62.9% 1.1% 61.9% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.6 62.5%
7-11 7.9% 32.5% 0.9% 31.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.4 32.0%
6-12 6.2% 11.3% 0.2% 11.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.5 11.1%
5-13 4.2% 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 1.6%
4-14 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 10.0 0.0 2.6 0.1%
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 74.6% 7.8% 66.8% 4.9 8.7 9.8 10.1 9.1 8.4 7.6 5.5 4.6 3.4 3.1 3.4 0.8 0.0 25.4 72.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0