Preseason Rankings
Lafayette
Patriot League
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#199
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.3#300
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#282
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#114
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.3% 30.3% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.7 14.7
.500 or above 78.4% 95.1% 77.2%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 94.8% 83.0%
Conference Champion 26.5% 42.3% 25.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four3.3% 1.4% 3.4%
First Round18.8% 29.6% 18.0%
Second Round1.5% 3.7% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 6.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 417 - 620 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 37   @ Villanova L 54-70 7%    
  Nov 09, 2024 173   @ La Salle L 64-68 35%    
  Nov 12, 2024 166   Penn W 67-66 55%    
  Nov 16, 2024 172   @ Cornell L 71-75 35%    
  Nov 20, 2024 142   @ Rhode Island L 66-72 30%    
  Nov 29, 2024 352   LIU Brooklyn W 75-61 89%    
  Nov 30, 2024 308   Niagara W 70-61 79%    
  Dec 01, 2024 318   Binghamton W 70-60 81%    
  Dec 07, 2024 362   @ Mercyhurst W 71-58 88%    
  Dec 18, 2024 150   @ George Washington L 69-74 33%    
  Dec 21, 2024 271   @ Portland W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 29, 2024 356   Stonehill W 73-58 91%    
  Jan 02, 2025 266   Boston University W 67-61 71%    
  Jan 05, 2025 258   @ Navy W 64-63 51%    
  Jan 08, 2025 268   @ Bucknell W 63-62 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 348   Holy Cross W 72-59 87%    
  Jan 15, 2025 321   @ Army W 62-58 64%    
  Jan 18, 2025 171   Colgate W 65-63 55%    
  Jan 22, 2025 350   @ Loyola Maryland W 67-59 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 264   @ Lehigh W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 252   American W 66-60 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 171   @ Colgate L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 05, 2025 350   Loyola Maryland W 70-56 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 258   Navy W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 10, 2025 252   @ American L 62-63 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 268   Bucknell W 66-59 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 348   @ Holy Cross W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 264   Lehigh W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 25, 2025 321   Army W 65-55 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 266   @ Boston University W 64-63 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.9 5.9 6.9 5.9 3.1 1.0 26.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.7 6.8 4.7 1.7 0.3 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.9 5.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.5 4.2 1.5 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 3.2 0.7 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.2 6.1 8.2 9.9 11.2 12.2 12.3 11.1 8.6 6.2 3.1 1.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 3.1    3.0 0.1
16-2 95.9% 5.9    5.2 0.7 0.0
15-3 80.7% 6.9    5.1 1.7 0.1
14-4 53.3% 5.9    3.2 2.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 23.9% 2.9    0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.5% 26.5 18.6 6.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 63.7% 62.8% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.4%
17-1 3.1% 54.4% 54.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.4%
16-2 6.2% 48.3% 48.3% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 3.2
15-3 8.6% 38.2% 38.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 5.3
14-4 11.1% 30.6% 30.6% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.7 7.7
13-5 12.3% 24.4% 24.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.2 9.3
12-6 12.2% 16.8% 16.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 10.2
11-7 11.2% 11.7% 11.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 9.9
10-8 9.9% 9.5% 9.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 9.0
9-9 8.2% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 7.6
8-10 6.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.7
7-11 4.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 4.1
6-12 2.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-13 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 4.5 5.4 6.3 79.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.4 27.3 12.1 27.3 3.0 18.2 12.1