Preseason Rankings
Longwood
Big South
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#195
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.7#237
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#210
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#181
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 15.6% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.9
.500 or above 70.7% 75.4% 47.7%
.500 or above in Conference 71.4% 74.3% 57.3%
Conference Champion 17.5% 19.1% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 4.0% 9.3%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 2.2%
First Round13.8% 15.0% 7.6%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 53 - 7
Quad 413 - 516 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 320   Morgan St. W 79-69 83%    
  Nov 13, 2024 200   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-73 61%    
  Nov 16, 2024 323   Tennessee Martin W 81-70 84%    
  Nov 19, 2024 318   @ Binghamton W 71-67 65%    
  Nov 22, 2024 88   UAB L 68-76 23%    
  Dec 05, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 74-57 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 256   NC Central W 72-66 71%    
  Dec 18, 2024 301   @ Campbell W 70-67 59%    
  Dec 20, 2024 256   @ NC Central W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 29, 2024 78   @ SMU L 65-77 15%    
  Jan 02, 2025 303   @ Presbyterian W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 04, 2025 280   Charleston Southern W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 08, 2025 186   UNC Asheville W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 189   @ Winthrop L 68-72 39%    
  Jan 15, 2025 125   High Point L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 22, 2025 269   @ Radford W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 330   South Carolina Upstate W 74-63 83%    
  Jan 29, 2025 246   @ Gardner-Webb L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 280   @ Charleston Southern W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 269   Radford W 69-62 71%    
  Feb 12, 2025 125   @ High Point L 71-78 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 303   Presbyterian W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 19, 2025 246   Gardner-Webb W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 186   @ UNC Asheville L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 189   Winthrop W 71-69 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 330   @ South Carolina Upstate W 71-66 67%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.0 5.0 3.9 2.0 0.6 17.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.3 5.0 1.8 0.3 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.4 6.4 3.6 0.6 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.9 1.8 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.9 1.2 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.8 0.9 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.7 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.3 5.1 7.4 9.7 11.2 12.5 12.6 11.8 9.6 6.9 4.2 2.0 0.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-1 100.0% 2.0    2.0 0.1
14-2 93.6% 3.9    3.3 0.6 0.0
13-3 73.2% 5.0    3.3 1.7 0.1
12-4 42.0% 4.0    1.6 1.9 0.5 0.0
11-5 13.2% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.5% 17.5 11.0 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.6% 62.9% 61.6% 1.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.4%
15-1 2.0% 52.0% 51.6% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.0%
14-2 4.2% 43.4% 43.3% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 0.2%
13-3 6.9% 33.4% 33.4% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 4.6
12-4 9.6% 25.9% 25.9% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.2 7.1
11-5 11.8% 19.6% 19.6% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 9.5
10-6 12.6% 12.4% 12.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 11.0
9-7 12.5% 8.8% 8.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 11.4
8-8 11.2% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 10.5
7-9 9.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.3
6-10 7.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.2
5-11 5.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.0
4-12 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.2
3-13 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-14 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.5% 14.4% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 3.6 3.7 3.1 85.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.0 5.1 10.2 20.4 24.5 6.1 8.2 10.2 10.2 5.1