Preseason Rankings
Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#108
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.6#291
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#139
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#95
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.6% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 24.3% 15.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 2.1% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.9 11.5 12.6
.500 or above 74.1% 85.0% 63.1%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 85.0% 72.7%
Conference Champion 24.6% 30.5% 18.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.7% 4.1%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
First Round19.4% 23.9% 14.9%
Second Round5.0% 6.9% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.2% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 9
Quad 47 - 116 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 145   @ Texas Arlington W 72-71 50%    
  Nov 12, 2024 116   Massachusetts W 70-69 54%    
  Nov 30, 2024 248   Southern W 72-61 84%    
  Dec 04, 2024 42   @ Memphis L 68-78 20%    
  Dec 07, 2024 156   @ Louisiana W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 13, 2024 209   Georgia Southern W 75-66 79%    
  Dec 16, 2024 69   Grand Canyon L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 02, 2025 152   @ UTEP W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 161   @ New Mexico St. W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 275   Florida International W 77-65 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 110   Liberty W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 16, 2025 202   @ Jacksonville St. W 66-63 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 115   Western Kentucky W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 197   Middle Tennessee W 69-60 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 119   Sam Houston St. W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 06, 2025 110   @ Liberty L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 13, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 81-73 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 202   Jacksonville St. W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 20, 2025 197   @ Middle Tennessee W 66-63 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 75-77 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 119   @ Sam Houston St. L 67-69 44%    
  Mar 06, 2025 161   New Mexico St. W 70-63 71%    
  Mar 08, 2025 152   UTEP W 71-65 70%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.2 5.8 6.4 4.7 2.6 0.8 24.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 6.0 3.7 1.2 0.2 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.1 4.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 3.0 0.7 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.2 9.0 10.4 11.3 11.5 11.0 9.7 7.6 4.9 2.6 0.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.5 0.1
16-2 96.7% 4.7    4.3 0.4
15-3 84.0% 6.4    4.9 1.4 0.1
14-4 59.7% 5.8    3.3 2.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 29.0% 3.2    1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 8.3% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.6% 24.6 17.1 6.0 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 86.7% 64.9% 21.9% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 62.2%
17-1 2.6% 69.0% 56.6% 12.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 28.5%
16-2 4.9% 55.3% 49.1% 6.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.2 12.2%
15-3 7.6% 41.5% 39.3% 2.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.5 3.6%
14-4 9.7% 31.3% 30.8% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.7 0.7%
13-5 11.0% 24.5% 24.5% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.3 0.1%
12-6 11.5% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.0%
11-7 11.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.8
10-8 10.4% 9.2% 9.2% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.4
9-9 9.0% 7.2% 7.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.4
8-10 7.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.9
7-11 5.3% 2.5% 2.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.1
6-12 3.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.6
5-13 2.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.7% 18.7% 1.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 2.9 6.5 4.3 1.9 1.0 0.5 80.3 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.1 13.3 32.8 15.4 20.0 10.8 5.1 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 5.2 11.6 11.6 9.3 23.3 23.3 11.6 9.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 96.6% 3.4 13.8 34.5 13.8 17.2 17.2