Preseason Rankings
North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#49
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#164
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#63
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.7% 2.8% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 8.2% 8.3% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 15.8% 16.0% 4.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.3% 41.7% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.8% 39.2% 13.4%
Average Seed 7.3 7.3 8.0
.500 or above 75.5% 76.0% 40.1%
.500 or above in Conference 58.5% 58.9% 29.0%
Conference Champion 4.3% 4.4% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.7% 11.9%
First Four5.1% 5.1% 2.1%
First Round38.6% 39.0% 12.7%
Second Round23.2% 23.5% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen10.0% 10.1% 2.8%
Elite Eight4.4% 4.5% 1.1%
Final Four1.8% 1.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 98.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 25 - 47 - 11
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 330   South Carolina Upstate W 82-59 98%    
  Nov 08, 2024 303   Presbyterian W 82-62 97%    
  Nov 13, 2024 291   Coastal Carolina W 84-65 96%    
  Nov 18, 2024 171   Colgate W 76-63 88%    
  Nov 22, 2024 247   William & Mary W 79-62 93%    
  Nov 28, 2024 12   Purdue L 70-76 31%    
  Dec 04, 2024 17   Texas L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 07, 2024 83   Florida St. W 79-73 68%    
  Dec 10, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 83-52 99.6%   
  Dec 14, 2024 2   @ Kansas L 68-80 15%    
  Dec 22, 2024 241   Rider W 81-64 92%    
  Dec 31, 2024 57   @ Virginia L 60-63 41%    
  Jan 04, 2025 41   @ Wake Forest L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 08, 2025 66   Notre Dame W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 7   North Carolina L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 15, 2025 74   @ Virginia Tech L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 109   California W 78-69 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 78   SMU W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 27, 2025 4   @ Duke L 65-77 17%    
  Feb 01, 2025 43   Clemson W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 05, 2025 109   @ California W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 93   @ Stanford W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 50   Louisville W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 114   Boston College W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 19, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 71-81 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 41   Wake Forest W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 56   @ Syracuse L 75-78 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 80   @ Georgia Tech L 72-73 47%    
  Mar 05, 2025 52   Pittsburgh W 72-69 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 36   @ Miami (FL) L 73-77 36%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.3 1.0 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.7 1.7 0.2 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.5 1.7 0.2 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 3.0 1.1 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.9 0.2 5.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.1 5.9 7.5 8.8 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.0 8.6 7.0 5.1 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 97.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 88.8% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 62.1% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 35.3% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
15-5 11.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 42.1% 57.9% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.9% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.9 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.5% 99.7% 16.2% 83.5% 4.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 5.1% 99.0% 13.7% 85.3% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
14-6 7.0% 93.7% 9.9% 83.8% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 93.0%
13-7 8.6% 84.9% 5.8% 79.2% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.3 84.0%
12-8 10.0% 68.6% 2.9% 65.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.2 3.1 67.6%
11-9 10.6% 47.3% 1.9% 45.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.6 46.3%
10-10 10.5% 26.4% 0.9% 25.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.7 25.8%
9-11 10.3% 7.9% 0.4% 7.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 9.5 7.6%
8-12 8.8% 2.2% 0.2% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.6 2.0%
7-13 7.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.1%
6-14 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 5.9
5-15 4.1% 4.1
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 41.3% 4.0% 37.3% 7.3 1.0 1.8 2.3 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.2 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.2 1.0 0.0 58.7 38.8%