Preseason Rankings
North Texas
American Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#86
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace57.5#362
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#129
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 2.4% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.5% 19.7% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 6.4% 1.4%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 11.5
.500 or above 84.3% 86.7% 63.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.2% 82.8% 67.7%
Conference Champion 18.1% 19.1% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.2% 2.7%
First Four2.7% 2.9% 0.7%
First Round17.4% 18.5% 7.8%
Second Round7.5% 8.1% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 3.0% 0.7%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 89.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 33 - 6
Quad 37 - 310 - 9
Quad 48 - 118 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 228   Evansville W 70-57 90%    
  Nov 13, 2024 76   @ Minnesota L 61-65 37%    
  Nov 18, 2024 99   @ McNeese St. L 62-64 44%    
  Nov 25, 2024 123   Oregon St. W 65-58 74%    
  Nov 28, 2024 112   Northern Iowa W 64-61 61%    
  Dec 06, 2024 125   @ High Point W 68-66 55%    
  Dec 18, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 73-43 99.6%   
  Dec 22, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 80-56 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 88   UAB W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 05, 2025 42   @ Memphis L 64-71 28%    
  Jan 08, 2025 211   Rice W 69-56 86%    
  Jan 14, 2025 137   @ East Carolina W 62-60 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 232   @ Texas San Antonio W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 22, 2025 130   Temple W 67-59 75%    
  Jan 26, 2025 97   Florida Atlantic W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 105   @ Wichita St. L 63-64 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 232   Texas San Antonio W 74-61 87%    
  Feb 03, 2025 88   @ UAB L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 175   Tulane W 75-64 81%    
  Feb 11, 2025 211   @ Rice W 66-59 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 148   Tulsa W 71-62 78%    
  Feb 23, 2025 102   @ South Florida L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 27, 2025 97   @ Florida Atlantic L 64-66 43%    
  Mar 03, 2025 105   Wichita St. W 66-61 67%    
  Mar 06, 2025 126   Charlotte W 62-54 74%    
  Mar 09, 2025 130   @ Temple W 64-62 56%    
Projected Record 17 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 5.1 4.5 2.4 0.7 18.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.7 5.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.5 4.1 1.1 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 5.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.0 0.7 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.1 0.1 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.8 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.8 12.2 11.9 10.1 7.7 5.1 2.4 0.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 98.1% 2.4    2.2 0.2
16-2 87.8% 4.5    3.6 0.8 0.0
15-3 65.2% 5.1    3.1 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 36.9% 3.7    1.5 1.7 0.5 0.1
13-5 12.8% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.1% 18.1 11.5 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 95.6% 59.9% 35.7% 4.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.1%
17-1 2.4% 84.8% 45.9% 38.9% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 71.9%
16-2 5.1% 69.5% 38.7% 30.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.5 50.2%
15-3 7.7% 46.8% 29.6% 17.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 4.1 24.4%
14-4 10.1% 30.0% 23.0% 7.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 9.0%
13-5 11.9% 19.2% 17.7% 1.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 9.6 1.8%
12-6 12.2% 12.1% 11.7% 0.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.4%
11-7 11.8% 8.3% 8.2% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.8 0.1%
10-8 10.6% 4.5% 4.5% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.1
9-9 8.7% 2.4% 2.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.5
8-10 7.0% 1.6% 1.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9
7-11 4.8% 1.3% 1.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
6-12 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.5% 13.5% 5.0% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 5.4 4.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 81.5 5.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 35.5 32.6 16.8 11.5 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.9 6.1 12.2 30.5 20.7 13.4 11.0 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.3 11.4 11.4 34.1 31.8 11.4