IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Portland St.
Big Sky
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.8	#257
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.2	#74
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.5	#281

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.3	#219

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.9%	13.5%	6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.2	14.9

.500 or above	38.2%	67.6%	35.4%
.500 or above in Conference	50.4%	70.7%	48.5%
Conference Champion	7.5%	16.0%	6.7%
Last Place in Conference	11.9%	4.5%	12.6%

First Four	1.3%	1.1%	1.4%
First Round	6.1%	13.0%	5.5%
Second Round	0.4%	1.2%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 8.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 9
Quad 4	11 - 8	13 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	91	@ Washington St.	L	61-75	9%
Nov 12, 2024	282	@ San Diego	L	74-76	43%
Nov 22, 2024	200	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	74-80	29%
Nov 23, 2024	201	St. Thomas	L	66-69	40%
Nov 24, 2024	153	Wofford	L	69-74	32%
Nov 30, 2024	276	Utah Tech	W	77-73	63%
Dec 04, 2024	127	@ Seattle	L	64-74	19%
Dec 07, 2024	317	Denver	W	80-73	72%
Dec 18, 2024	314	@ Pacific	W	74-73	51%
Dec 21, 2024	278	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	66-68	42%
Jan 04, 2025	300	@ Sacramento St.	L	67-68	48%
Jan 09, 2025	262	Eastern Washington	W	78-75	61%
Jan 11, 2025	279	Idaho	W	71-67	63%
Jan 16, 2025	226	@ Northern Colorado	L	74-79	35%
Jan 18, 2025	286	@ Northern Arizona	L	73-75	45%
Jan 23, 2025	179	Weber St.	L	70-71	46%
Jan 25, 2025	315	Idaho St.	W	70-64	70%
Jan 30, 2025	190	@ Montana	L	68-75	29%
Feb 01, 2025	149	@ Montana St.	L	69-78	24%
Feb 06, 2025	279	@ Idaho	L	68-70	43%
Feb 08, 2025	262	@ Eastern Washington	L	75-78	41%
Feb 13, 2025	286	Northern Arizona	W	76-72	64%
Feb 15, 2025	226	Northern Colorado	W	77-76	55%
Feb 20, 2025	315	@ Idaho St.	W	68-67	51%
Feb 22, 2025	179	@ Weber St.	L	67-74	28%
Feb 27, 2025	149	Montana St.	L	72-75	41%
Mar 01, 2025	190	Montana	L	71-72	48%
Mar 03, 2025	300	Sacramento St.	W	70-65	67%
Projected Record						13 - 15	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.6	1.5	2.1	1.8	1.0	0.4	0.1		7.5	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	1.2	3.1	3.0	1.5	0.4	0.0				9.4	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	2.1	4.1	3.0	0.9	0.1						10.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.4	4.6	3.0	0.6	0.0							11.1	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.5	5.3	2.9	0.5	0.0								11.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.7	5.2	2.7	0.4	0.0									11.3	6th
7th					0.0	0.5	2.8	4.8	2.7	0.4	0.0										11.2	7th
8th				0.1	0.7	2.9	4.2	2.3	0.3	0.0											10.5	8th
9th		0.0	0.2	1.2	2.8	3.3	1.5	0.3	0.0												9.3	9th
10th	0.2	0.8	1.7	2.2	1.9	0.7	0.2	0.0													7.7	10th

Total	0.2	0.8	1.9	3.5	5.4	7.3	9.1	10.4	10.9	11.1	10.2	9.0	7.3	5.4	3.7	2.2	1.1	0.4	0.1			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	96.0%	1.0		0.9	0.1
15-3	83.8%	1.8		1.4	0.4	0.0
14-4	55.9%	2.1		1.1	0.8	0.2	0.0
13-5	27.2%	1.5		0.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	7.8%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.5%	7.5		4.5	2.2	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		65.4%	65.4%		10.4					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.4%		51.0%	50.8%	0.1%	12.8											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2		0.2%
16-2	1.1%		37.6%	37.6%		13.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.7
15-3	2.2%		33.0%	33.0%		13.9													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	1.4
14-4	3.7%		24.0%	24.0%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	2.8
13-5	5.4%		20.2%	20.2%		14.7														0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	4.3
12-6	7.3%		14.3%	14.3%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.4	6.3
11-7	9.0%		9.5%	9.5%		15.5														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	8.1
10-8	10.2%		6.7%	6.7%		15.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	9.5
9-9	11.1%		4.1%	4.1%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.4	10.7
8-10	10.9%		2.0%	2.0%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.7
7-11	10.4%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.3
6-12	9.1%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.0
5-13	7.3%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	7.3
4-14	5.4%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	5.4
3-15	3.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
2-16	1.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.9
1-17	0.8%																							0.8
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		6.9%	6.9%	0.0%	14.8					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.3	2.2	2.4	93.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%