IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	+10.0	#47
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.7	#260
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.8	#97

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.1	#13

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.2%	1.3%	0.2%
Top 2 Seed	3.1%	3.4%	0.5%
Top 4 Seed	9.0%	9.8%	2.2%
Top 6 Seed	15.8%	17.2%	5.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	44.5%	47.1%	24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	29.4%	31.7%	13.9%
Average Seed	7.7	7.6	9.0

.500 or above	87.1%	89.4%	68.9%
.500 or above in Conference	88.8%	90.0%	79.2%
Conference Champion	28.5%	30.1%	15.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.3%	0.3%	0.9%

First Four	5.1%	5.3%	3.8%
First Round	42.0%	44.6%	22.0%
Second Round	24.4%	26.2%	10.9%
Sweet Sixteen	10.6%	11.5%	3.4%
Elite Eight	4.8%	5.2%	1.3%
Final Four	2.0%	2.2%	0.4%
Championship Game	0.8%	0.9%	0.1%
National Champion	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	2 - 4
Quad 2	4 - 3	6 - 8
Quad 3	7 - 2	13 - 10
Quad 4	7 - 1	20 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2024	162	UC San Diego	W	73-60	89%
Nov 18, 2024	6	Gonzaga	L	70-74	36%
Nov 26, 2024	13	Creighton	L	66-71	34%
Nov 27, 2024	34	Oregon	L	67-68	46%
Nov 30, 2024	19	Texas A&M	L	66-69	41%
Dec 04, 2024	250	@ Fresno St.	W	70-59	83%
Dec 07, 2024	282	San Diego	W	80-61	95%
Dec 11, 2024	163	California Baptist	W	70-57	86%
Dec 21, 2024	109	California	W	72-66	70%
Dec 28, 2024	81	Utah St.	W	73-67	69%
Jan 04, 2025	63	@ Boise St.	L	65-67	44%
Jan 07, 2025	229	Air Force	W	71-55	92%
Jan 11, 2025	70	@ New Mexico	L	73-74	46%
Jan 14, 2025	84	Colorado St.	W	68-62	69%
Jan 18, 2025	95	UNLV	W	69-62	72%
Jan 21, 2025	229	@ Air Force	W	68-58	81%
Jan 25, 2025	75	@ Nevada	L	66-67	48%
Jan 28, 2025	160	San Jose St.	W	73-60	86%
Feb 01, 2025	177	Wyoming	W	75-61	87%
Feb 08, 2025	84	@ Colorado St.	L	65-66	50%
Feb 11, 2025	160	@ San Jose St.	W	70-63	71%
Feb 15, 2025	63	Boise St.	W	68-64	64%
Feb 18, 2025	250	Fresno St.	W	73-56	92%
Feb 22, 2025	81	@ Utah St.	L	69-70	49%
Feb 25, 2025	70	New Mexico	W	76-71	65%
Mar 01, 2025	177	@ Wyoming	W	72-64	74%
Mar 04, 2025	95	@ UNLV	W	66-65	53%
Mar 08, 2025	75	Nevada	W	69-64	67%
Projected Record						19 - 9	14 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.9	3.3	6.2	7.2	6.2	3.6	1.0		28.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.5	4.7	6.1	4.4	1.5	0.2				18.7	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	1.9	5.0	5.2	2.2	0.4	0.0					15.0	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	1.8	4.3	3.7	1.2	0.1	0.0						11.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	1.8	3.5	2.7	0.7	0.0								9.1	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	1.6	2.6	1.8	0.5	0.0									7.0	6th
7th							0.1	0.4	1.3	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0										4.8	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.9	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0											2.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0													1.6	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0														0.7	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.2	11th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.8	3.0	4.4	5.8	7.7	9.7	11.1	12.0	11.8	11.0	8.7	6.4	3.6	1.0			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	1.0		1.0
19-1	100.0%	3.6		3.5	0.0
18-2	96.6%	6.2		5.6	0.6
17-3	82.8%	7.2		5.4	1.7	0.1
16-4	56.7%	6.2		3.4	2.4	0.4	0.0
15-5	27.7%	3.3		1.1	1.5	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-6	7.6%	0.9		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0				0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	28.5%	28.5		20.3	6.6	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	1.0%		99.5%	67.2%	32.3%	2.2		0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0									0.0		98.5%
19-1	3.6%		99.3%	58.0%	41.3%	3.3		0.5	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		98.3%
18-2	6.4%		96.5%	49.5%	47.0%	4.8		0.2	0.6	1.0	1.3	0.9	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.2		93.1%
17-3	8.7%		90.3%	39.5%	50.7%	6.7		0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.1	1.3	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.0	0.0				0.8		83.9%
16-4	11.0%		79.6%	32.2%	47.4%	8.3			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.0	1.4	1.4	1.5	1.3	0.2					2.2		69.9%
15-5	11.8%		60.1%	25.3%	34.9%	9.4				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.9	1.2	1.6	2.0	0.4	0.0				4.7		46.6%
14-6	12.0%		40.7%	18.0%	22.8%	10.2						0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.1	2.1	0.5	0.0				7.1		27.7%
13-7	11.1%		24.9%	13.3%	11.7%	10.7					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.3	0.5	0.0	0.0			8.3		13.4%
12-8	9.7%		13.9%	9.4%	4.5%	11.2									0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0		8.3		4.9%
11-9	7.7%		8.1%	6.1%	1.9%	11.6										0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		7.1		2.0%
10-10	5.8%		4.7%	4.4%	0.4%	12.1												0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.6		0.4%
9-11	4.4%		3.0%	2.9%	0.1%	13.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.2		0.1%
8-12	3.0%		1.6%	1.6%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0
7-13	1.8%		1.1%	1.1%		15.3															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8
6-14	1.0%		1.0%	1.0%		15.8																0.0	0.0	1.0
5-15	0.6%																							0.6
4-16	0.3%																							0.3
3-17	0.1%																							0.1
2-18	0.0%																							0.0
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		44.5%	21.3%	23.2%	7.7		1.2	1.9	2.4	3.4	3.2	3.7	3.3	3.8	4.6	5.9	8.2	2.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	55.5		29.4%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	1.4	64.6	28.9	6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.7	41.4	51.4	7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	2.0	28.1	45.6	26.3