Preseason Rankings
San Francisco
West Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#82
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.7#202
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#76
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.5% 3.6% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 18.5% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.8% 11.0% 1.5%
Average Seed 9.0 9.0 10.6
.500 or above 86.8% 87.3% 59.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.1% 82.4% 64.0%
Conference Champion 8.9% 9.0% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 2.1%
First Four3.1% 3.2% 0.7%
First Round16.8% 17.1% 5.5%
Second Round8.5% 8.7% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 34 - 8
Quad 35 - 210 - 10
Quad 410 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 345   Cal Poly W 78-56 98%    
  Nov 09, 2024 63   Boise St. W 70-68 56%    
  Nov 13, 2024 245   Long Beach St. W 82-68 91%    
  Nov 16, 2024 332   Chicago St. W 77-57 96%    
  Nov 21, 2024 42   Memphis L 74-77 38%    
  Nov 25, 2024 43   Clemson L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 01, 2024 362   Mercyhurst W 83-55 99%    
  Dec 05, 2024 94   Saint Louis W 77-73 64%    
  Dec 15, 2024 100   Loyola Chicago W 71-69 56%    
  Dec 18, 2024 92   @ Bradley L 68-70 43%    
  Dec 21, 2024 190   Montana W 76-65 83%    
  Dec 28, 2024 141   Loyola Marymount W 74-65 77%    
  Dec 30, 2024 98   Santa Clara W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 02, 2025 314   @ Pacific W 78-66 85%    
  Jan 04, 2025 91   @ Washington St. L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 271   Portland W 80-64 91%    
  Jan 11, 2025 98   @ Santa Clara L 72-74 45%    
  Jan 16, 2025 217   @ Pepperdine W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 123   Oregon St. W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 23, 2025 35   @ St. Mary's L 61-68 29%    
  Jan 25, 2025 282   San Diego W 82-66 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 91   Washington St. W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 06, 2025 35   St. Mary's L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 141   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 13, 2025 6   @ Gonzaga L 69-82 15%    
  Feb 15, 2025 282   @ San Diego W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 20, 2025 314   Pacific W 81-63 93%    
  Feb 27, 2025 123   @ Oregon St. W 69-67 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 6   Gonzaga L 72-79 30%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.9 1.3 0.3 8.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 6.2 3.5 0.8 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.2 6.3 1.9 0.1 19.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.0 7.0 4.3 0.7 0.0 16.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.9 5.7 2.7 0.4 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.5 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.9 7.2 9.8 12.1 13.4 13.5 12.3 9.3 6.4 3.7 1.3 0.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.1
16-2 79.6% 2.9    2.0 0.9 0.0
15-3 43.2% 2.8    1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 13.6% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 4.9 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 99.1% 54.4% 44.7% 3.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
17-1 1.3% 97.0% 43.9% 53.1% 4.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.7%
16-2 3.7% 84.1% 32.8% 51.3% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 76.4%
15-3 6.4% 67.1% 26.0% 41.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 55.5%
14-4 9.3% 43.3% 18.5% 24.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.3 30.5%
13-5 12.3% 21.9% 10.4% 11.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.6 12.9%
12-6 13.5% 11.0% 6.5% 4.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 12.0 4.8%
11-7 13.4% 5.3% 4.2% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.7 1.1%
10-8 12.1% 2.1% 1.9% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.2%
9-9 9.8% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.1%
8-10 7.2% 0.6% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2
7-11 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
6-12 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 1.7% 1.7
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.3% 8.4% 9.9% 9.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.1 3.1 4.9 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 81.7 10.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 56.1 28.8 15.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.2 40.0 60.0