IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.4	#316
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.8	#233
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.0	#318

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.4	#287

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.5%	18.5%	7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	15.2	15.7

.500 or above	36.9%	74.2%	36.4%
.500 or above in Conference	55.1%	80.0%	54.8%
Conference Champion	8.7%	23.4%	8.6%
Last Place in Conference	9.2%	1.6%	9.3%

First Four	4.5%	6.1%	4.5%
First Round	5.2%	16.0%	5.1%
Second Round	0.1%	1.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 1.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 3	1 - 6
Quad 4	12 - 11	13 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2024	20	@ Indiana	L	59-83	1%
Nov 08, 2024	22	@ Illinois	L	62-86	1%
Nov 12, 2024	132	@ Indiana St.	L	67-80	11%
Nov 15, 2024	311	@ Western Michigan	L	69-72	38%
Nov 16, 2024	297	Canisius	L	67-68	45%
Nov 19, 2024	310	@ Green Bay	L	63-67	38%
Nov 29, 2024	254	North Florida	L	71-72	47%
Dec 08, 2024	240	Ball St.	L	68-70	44%
Dec 19, 2024	267	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	69-75	29%
Dec 21, 2024	327	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	69-71	44%
Jan 02, 2025	294	Western Illinois	W	66-65	55%
Jan 04, 2025	349	Lindenwood	W	72-65	72%
Jan 07, 2025	326	@ Eastern Illinois	L	66-68	44%
Jan 11, 2025	336	Tennessee Tech	W	70-65	68%
Jan 16, 2025	309	@ Tennessee St.	L	68-72	38%
Jan 18, 2025	323	@ Tennessee Martin	L	74-76	43%
Jan 23, 2025	328	Southern Indiana	W	73-69	64%
Jan 25, 2025	224	Morehead St.	L	64-66	43%
Jan 30, 2025	349	@ Lindenwood	W	69-68	53%
Feb 01, 2025	294	@ Western Illinois	L	63-68	35%
Feb 04, 2025	326	Eastern Illinois	W	69-65	64%
Feb 06, 2025	336	@ Tennessee Tech	L	67-68	48%
Feb 13, 2025	323	Tennessee Martin	W	77-73	63%
Feb 15, 2025	309	Tennessee St.	W	71-69	58%
Feb 20, 2025	224	@ Morehead St.	L	61-69	24%
Feb 22, 2025	328	@ Southern Indiana	L	70-72	45%
Feb 27, 2025	327	Southeast Missouri St.	W	72-68	63%
Mar 01, 2025	267	Arkansas Little Rock	L	71-72	49%
Projected Record						12 - 16	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.0	1.9	2.2	1.8	1.0	0.4	0.1		8.7	1st
2nd												0.0	0.6	2.3	3.2	2.4	1.0	0.3	0.0				10.0	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.0	3.2	3.7	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0					10.5	3rd
4th										0.1	1.2	3.5	4.0	1.5	0.3	0.0							10.6	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	3.7	3.9	1.3	0.1	0.0								10.1	5th
6th								0.1	1.1	3.7	3.8	1.2	0.1	0.0									9.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.0	3.4	3.8	1.2	0.1											9.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	1.0	3.1	3.4	1.1	0.1	0.0											8.9	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.2	1.3	2.9	3.0	0.9	0.1	0.0												8.4	9th
10th			0.1	0.5	1.4	2.5	2.0	0.7	0.1														7.4	10th
11th	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.5	1.6	1.1	0.3	0.0															5.9	11th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.0	3.3	5.0	6.4	7.9	9.0	9.9	10.0	9.7	9.2	7.9	6.5	4.8	3.3	2.1	1.1	0.4	0.1			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
18-2	98.0%	1.0		1.0	0.1
17-3	87.1%	1.8		1.5	0.4	0.0
16-4	67.0%	2.2		1.5	0.7	0.1
15-5	38.5%	1.9		0.8	0.8	0.2	0.0
14-6	15.6%	1.0		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	3.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	8.7%	8.7		5.5	2.4	0.7	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		52.2%	52.2%		13.3												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
19-1	0.4%		54.9%	54.9%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.2
18-2	1.1%		46.5%	46.5%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.6
17-3	2.1%		37.9%	37.9%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	1.3
16-4	3.3%		32.4%	32.4%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	2.2
15-5	4.8%		25.6%	25.6%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.1	1.1	3.6
14-6	6.5%		19.8%	19.8%		15.9															0.0	0.1	1.2	5.2
13-7	7.9%		12.0%	12.0%		16.0																0.0	0.9	7.0
12-8	9.2%		7.1%	7.1%		16.0																0.0	0.6	8.5
11-9	9.7%		3.7%	3.7%		16.0																0.0	0.4	9.3
10-10	10.0%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.2	9.8
9-11	9.9%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	9.8
8-12	9.0%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	8.9
7-13	7.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.9
6-14	6.4%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.4
5-15	5.0%																							5.0
4-16	3.3%																							3.3
3-17	2.0%																							2.0
2-18	1.0%																							1.0
1-19	0.4%																							0.4
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.5%	7.5%	0.0%	15.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	5.9	92.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%