Preseason Rankings
South Alabama
Sun Belt
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#223
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.7#136
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#222
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#224
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 46.1% 54.2% 27.2%
.500 or above in Conference 44.3% 49.4% 32.4%
Conference Champion 3.9% 4.8% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 7.9% 15.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round3.4% 4.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 410 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 277   Central Michigan W 70-65 70%    
  Nov 08, 2024 215   @ Nicholls St. L 70-73 38%    
  Nov 12, 2024 40   @ Mississippi L 65-82 6%    
  Nov 25, 2024 329   Incarnate Word W 80-70 81%    
  Nov 26, 2024 294   Western Illinois W 71-64 72%    
  Nov 29, 2024 324   Alcorn St. W 77-68 79%    
  Dec 08, 2024 202   Jacksonville St. W 69-67 57%    
  Dec 15, 2024 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 73-65 75%    
  Dec 16, 2024 53   @ TCU L 67-83 9%    
  Dec 21, 2024 107   James Madison L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 02, 2025 204   @ Georgia St. L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 209   @ Georgia Southern L 72-76 38%    
  Jan 09, 2025 134   Arkansas St. L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 227   Old Dominion W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 15, 2025 236   Southern Miss W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 129   Troy L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 23, 2025 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 129   @ Troy L 69-77 25%    
  Jan 30, 2025 296   Louisiana Monroe W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 156   @ Louisiana L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 05, 2025 291   @ Coastal Carolina W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 194   Marshall W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 185   Texas St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 134   @ Arkansas St. L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 185   @ Texas St. L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 26, 2025 236   @ Southern Miss L 70-73 42%    
  Feb 28, 2025 156   Louisiana L 72-73 49%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.4 3.0 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.2 2.4 0.2 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.5 0.4 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.8 1.1 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.0 1.5 0.1 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.7 1.8 0.2 8.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.6 13th
14th 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.0 14th
Total 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.3 6.6 8.6 10.1 10.9 11.6 10.9 9.3 7.9 6.1 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 90.7% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 67.3% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 39.7% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 57.9% 57.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 34.7% 34.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.8% 28.1% 28.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.6% 25.0% 24.9% 0.2% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.2%
14-4 2.9% 18.2% 18.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4
13-5 4.4% 13.3% 13.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.8
12-6 6.1% 9.1% 9.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.6
11-7 7.9% 5.5% 5.5% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 7.5
10-8 9.3% 2.9% 2.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.0
9-9 10.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.7
8-10 11.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.5
7-11 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 10.8
6-12 10.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.1
5-13 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.6
4-14 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.5
3-15 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
2-16 2.4% 2.4
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 96.5 0.0%