Preseason Rankings
South Florida
American Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#102
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#145
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 1.4% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 2.7% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 20.2% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 7.6% 1.8%
Average Seed 10.6 9.9 11.1
.500 or above 76.5% 90.1% 71.6%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 77.9% 62.7%
Conference Champion 10.3% 15.8% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.5% 4.0%
First Four1.4% 2.7% 0.9%
First Round11.5% 19.0% 8.9%
Second Round4.5% 8.3% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 3.2% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Neutral) - 26.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 36 - 49 - 11
Quad 49 - 118 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 25   Florida L 74-81 26%    
  Nov 08, 2024 117   @ College of Charleston L 75-76 48%    
  Nov 12, 2024 358   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 88-65 98%    
  Nov 15, 2024 351   West Georgia W 82-61 97%    
  Nov 21, 2024 271   Portland W 78-67 83%    
  Dec 03, 2024 290   Stetson W 78-63 90%    
  Dec 07, 2024 100   @ Loyola Chicago L 69-72 39%    
  Dec 14, 2024 81   @ Utah St. L 71-76 33%    
  Dec 18, 2024 298   Bethune-Cookman W 81-66 91%    
  Dec 21, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-57 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 137   East Carolina W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 06, 2025 105   @ Wichita St. L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 175   @ Tulane W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 15, 2025 88   UAB W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 148   Tulsa W 78-70 74%    
  Jan 22, 2025 126   @ Charlotte W 66-65 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 137   @ East Carolina W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 28, 2025 211   Rice W 76-65 82%    
  Feb 02, 2025 97   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 06, 2025 130   Temple W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 09, 2025 105   Wichita St. W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 42   Memphis L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 16, 2025 88   @ UAB L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 19, 2025 232   @ Texas San Antonio W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 23, 2025 86   North Texas W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 130   @ Temple W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 97   Florida Atlantic W 74-71 58%    
  Mar 07, 2025 42   @ Memphis L 72-80 25%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.2 10.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.6 0.6 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.7 0.8 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 1.4 0.1 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.3 0.2 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.7 4.5 6.2 8.0 9.5 10.8 11.6 11.1 10.1 8.7 6.7 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 92.7% 2.1    1.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 69.7% 2.9    1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.2% 2.5    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 13.4% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 6.1 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 95.7% 53.2% 42.5% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.9%
17-1 1.1% 85.7% 48.1% 37.6% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 72.5%
16-2 2.3% 69.4% 36.3% 33.1% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 52.0%
15-3 4.2% 49.1% 30.2% 18.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 27.1%
14-4 6.7% 31.0% 22.3% 8.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 11.2%
13-5 8.7% 21.2% 18.3% 2.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.8 3.6%
12-6 10.1% 13.2% 12.5% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.8%
11-7 11.1% 7.9% 7.8% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.2 0.1%
10-8 11.6% 5.5% 5.5% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.1%
9-9 10.8% 2.8% 2.8% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5
8-10 9.5% 1.6% 1.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.4
7-11 8.0% 1.2% 1.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9
6-12 6.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
5-13 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.7% 2.7
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.2% 9.2% 3.0% 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 3.3 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 87.8 3.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.1 27.4 41.9 22.6 8.1