Preseason Rankings
Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#218
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.6#70
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#188
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#254
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.2% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 14.0
.500 or above 32.6% 39.8% 16.3%
.500 or above in Conference 35.6% 40.3% 25.1%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.3% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 21.0% 17.4% 29.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.4% 4.1% 1.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Home) - 69.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 12
Quad 48 - 412 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 275   Florida International W 81-75 70%    
  Nov 16, 2024 302   Nebraska Omaha W 78-71 75%    
  Nov 19, 2024 100   @ Loyola Chicago L 68-79 15%    
  Nov 22, 2024 282   @ San Diego L 77-78 49%    
  Nov 23, 2024 279   Idaho W 73-70 60%    
  Nov 26, 2024 23   @ UCLA L 60-78 5%    
  Nov 30, 2024 278   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-66 69%    
  Dec 07, 2024 11   @ Arizona L 70-92 3%    
  Dec 16, 2024 161   @ New Mexico St. L 69-75 30%    
  Dec 18, 2024 284   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-79 51%    
  Dec 21, 2024 286   Northern Arizona W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 04, 2025 69   @ Grand Canyon L 68-82 12%    
  Jan 09, 2025 221   Tarleton St. W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 145   Texas Arlington L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 127   @ Seattle L 67-75 25%    
  Jan 23, 2025 69   Grand Canyon L 71-79 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 163   California Baptist W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 30, 2025 145   @ Texas Arlington L 75-82 29%    
  Feb 01, 2025 221   @ Tarleton St. L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 06, 2025 163   @ California Baptist L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 184   Abilene Christian W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 13, 2025 276   Utah Tech W 80-74 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 151   Utah Valley L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 20, 2025 184   @ Abilene Christian L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 27, 2025 276   @ Utah Tech L 77-78 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 151   @ Utah Valley L 69-75 30%    
  Mar 06, 2025 127   Seattle L 70-72 43%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.4 4.1 1.0 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 5.1 4.5 1.1 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.6 5.0 1.1 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.2 4.8 1.0 0.0 14.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.7 6.1 3.7 0.8 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.8 2.4 4.3 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.8 9th
Total 0.8 2.5 5.3 8.0 10.8 12.3 12.6 12.2 10.8 8.9 6.5 4.5 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 90.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1
13-3 67.8% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.0
12-4 37.4% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 13.8% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 68.3% 35.0% 33.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.3%
15-1 0.2% 49.4% 42.8% 6.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.6%
14-2 0.7% 37.6% 36.4% 1.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9%
13-3 1.4% 30.5% 30.3% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.3%
12-4 2.6% 21.9% 21.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1
11-5 4.5% 13.0% 13.0% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.9
10-6 6.5% 9.0% 9.0% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.9
9-7 8.9% 4.7% 4.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.5
8-8 10.8% 2.4% 2.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6
7-9 12.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0
6-10 12.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5
5-11 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 12.2
4-12 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.8
3-13 8.0% 8.0
2-14 5.3% 5.3
1-15 2.5% 2.5
0-16 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%