Preseason Rankings
Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#221
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#230
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#234
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#212
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 6.4% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 16.2% 36.7% 13.8%
.500 or above in Conference 34.8% 52.4% 32.7%
Conference Champion 3.2% 6.8% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 21.8% 11.6% 23.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round3.1% 6.3% 2.7%
Second Round0.3% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 41 - 9
Quad 33 - 74 - 16
Quad 46 - 310 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 78   @ SMU L 65-78 11%    
  Nov 09, 2024 119   Sam Houston St. L 68-71 39%    
  Nov 12, 2024 83   @ Florida St. L 67-80 11%    
  Nov 17, 2024 9   @ Baylor L 59-81 2%    
  Nov 21, 2024 30   @ Michigan L 62-80 6%    
  Nov 29, 2024 210   Iona L 69-70 48%    
  Nov 30, 2024 155   Hofstra L 66-69 39%    
  Dec 01, 2024 132   Indiana St. L 72-77 33%    
  Dec 08, 2024 71   @ Central Florida L 64-78 12%    
  Dec 16, 2024 152   @ UTEP L 67-73 29%    
  Dec 18, 2024 87   @ Oklahoma St. L 63-76 13%    
  Dec 29, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 75-62 87%    
  Jan 04, 2025 145   Texas Arlington L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 218   @ Southern Utah L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 276   @ Utah Tech L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 16, 2025 163   California Baptist L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 69   @ Grand Canyon L 64-78 12%    
  Jan 23, 2025 184   @ Abilene Christian L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 30, 2025 276   Utah Tech W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 218   Southern Utah W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 06, 2025 127   @ Seattle L 64-72 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 151   @ Utah Valley L 65-71 30%    
  Feb 13, 2025 69   Grand Canyon L 67-75 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 127   Seattle L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 145   @ Texas Arlington L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 27, 2025 184   Abilene Christian W 71-70 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 163   @ California Baptist L 63-69 31%    
  Mar 08, 2025 151   Utah Valley L 67-68 48%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.1 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.4 3.9 1.1 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.1 4.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.7 5.0 1.0 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.2 4.8 0.9 0.0 14.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.9 3.9 0.9 0.0 15.5 8th
9th 0.8 2.5 4.6 4.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 14.4 9th
Total 0.8 2.6 5.5 8.2 10.8 12.4 12.8 12.2 11.0 8.5 6.4 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 91.4% 0.5    0.4 0.1
13-3 68.7% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
12-4 36.1% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 13.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 73.3% 62.2% 11.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.4%
15-1 0.2% 41.9% 39.5% 2.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.1%
14-2 0.6% 38.2% 35.5% 2.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4.2%
13-3 1.3% 29.3% 28.8% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.8%
12-4 2.6% 19.5% 19.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
11-5 4.2% 15.0% 15.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.6
10-6 6.4% 8.9% 8.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.8
9-7 8.5% 4.5% 4.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.1
8-8 11.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.8
7-9 12.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.1
6-10 12.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.7
5-11 12.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.3
4-12 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
3-13 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.2
2-14 5.5% 5.5
1-15 2.6% 2.6
0-16 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%