IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.3	#323
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	79.8	#9
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.1	#301

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.2	#340

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.9%	10.4%	5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	15.5	15.8

.500 or above	28.2%	52.0%	23.8%
.500 or above in Conference	48.3%	66.0%	45.0%
Conference Champion	6.5%	12.4%	5.4%
Last Place in Conference	11.8%	5.6%	12.9%

First Four	3.7%	4.8%	3.5%
First Round	4.0%	8.1%	3.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 15.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 4	11 - 11	12 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	193	@ Illinois St.	L	67-78	15%
Nov 11, 2024	231	@ North Alabama	L	75-84	20%
Nov 16, 2024	195	@ Longwood	L	70-81	16%
Nov 21, 2024	219	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	73-82	20%
Nov 22, 2024	335	Le Moyne	W	77-76	55%
Nov 27, 2024	14	@ Tennessee	L	64-91	1%
Dec 03, 2024	280	@ Charleston Southern	L	73-80	28%
Dec 11, 2024	293	@ Alabama St.	L	71-77	31%
Dec 19, 2024	224	@ Morehead St.	L	67-76	21%
Dec 21, 2024	328	@ Southern Indiana	L	78-80	41%
Jan 02, 2025	267	Arkansas Little Rock	L	79-80	46%
Jan 04, 2025	327	Southeast Missouri St.	W	80-77	61%
Jan 09, 2025	294	@ Western Illinois	L	69-75	32%
Jan 11, 2025	349	@ Lindenwood	W	77-76	50%
Jan 16, 2025	326	Eastern Illinois	W	76-73	61%
Jan 18, 2025	316	SIU Edwardsville	W	76-74	57%
Jan 21, 2025	309	@ Tennessee St.	L	75-80	35%
Jan 25, 2025	336	Tennessee Tech	W	77-72	65%
Jan 30, 2025	327	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	77-80	41%
Feb 01, 2025	267	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	76-83	27%
Feb 06, 2025	349	Lindenwood	W	79-73	69%
Feb 08, 2025	294	Western Illinois	W	73-72	52%
Feb 13, 2025	316	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	73-77	37%
Feb 15, 2025	326	@ Eastern Illinois	L	73-76	42%
Feb 18, 2025	309	Tennessee St.	W	78-77	55%
Feb 20, 2025	336	@ Tennessee Tech	L	74-75	45%
Feb 27, 2025	328	Southern Indiana	W	81-77	61%
Mar 01, 2025	224	Morehead St.	L	70-73	40%
Projected Record						11 - 17	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	0.8	1.4	1.6	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.0		6.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.6	1.9	2.6	1.9	0.7	0.2	0.0				7.9	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.9	2.8	3.1	1.7	0.4	0.0	0.0					9.0	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	3.5	3.4	1.4	0.2	0.0							9.6	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	3.9	3.8	1.2	0.1									10.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.1	4.0	4.0	1.1	0.1										10.3	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.1	3.8	3.9	1.2	0.1											10.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.3	3.4	3.7	1.2	0.1												9.8	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.5	3.5	3.3	1.1	0.1	0.0												9.9	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.7	1.9	3.1	2.4	0.8	0.1														9.1	10th
11th	0.2	0.6	1.3	2.1	2.0	1.2	0.3	0.0															7.7	11th

Total	0.2	0.6	1.4	2.8	4.1	6.1	7.6	8.7	9.9	10.4	10.3	9.3	8.1	6.7	5.3	3.7	2.4	1.5	0.8	0.2	0.0			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
18-2	98.7%	0.7		0.7	0.1
17-3	84.9%	1.3		1.1	0.2	0.0
16-4	67.5%	1.6		1.0	0.5	0.0
15-5	38.7%	1.4		0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
14-6	15.7%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	4.1%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.5%	6.5		4.0	1.8	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		74.2%	74.2%		12.9											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
19-1	0.2%		55.6%	55.6%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
18-2	0.8%		43.6%	43.6%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.4
17-3	1.5%		36.8%	36.8%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	1.0
16-4	2.4%		32.6%	32.6%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.6
15-5	3.7%		26.5%	26.5%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.9	2.7
14-6	5.3%		18.3%	18.3%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.9	4.3
13-7	6.7%		12.0%	12.0%		16.0																0.0	0.8	5.9
12-8	8.1%		7.1%	7.1%		16.0																0.0	0.6	7.5
11-9	9.3%		4.4%	4.4%		16.0																0.0	0.4	8.9
10-10	10.3%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.2	10.1
9-11	10.4%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	10.3
8-12	9.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.8
7-13	8.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.7
6-14	7.6%																							7.6
5-15	6.1%																							6.1
4-16	4.1%																							4.1
3-17	2.8%																							2.8
2-18	1.4%																							1.4
1-19	0.6%																							0.6
0-20	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.9%	5.9%	0.0%	15.7											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	4.8	94.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%