Preseason Rankings
Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#145
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.2#36
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#148
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#166
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 12.9% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.7 12.4 13.2
.500 or above 58.5% 71.8% 45.4%
.500 or above in Conference 63.9% 71.5% 56.3%
Conference Champion 11.2% 14.8% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 4.7% 9.9%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round9.9% 12.8% 7.1%
Second Round1.8% 2.5% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 49.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 49 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 108   Louisiana Tech L 71-72 50%    
  Nov 13, 2024 46   @ USC L 71-83 13%    
  Nov 19, 2024 207   @ Missouri St. W 74-73 51%    
  Nov 25, 2024 136   Murray St. L 71-72 48%    
  Nov 27, 2024 281   Austin Peay W 76-69 72%    
  Nov 28, 2024 142   Rhode Island L 77-78 49%    
  Dec 02, 2024 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-72 66%    
  Dec 12, 2024 134   @ Arkansas St. L 76-80 37%    
  Dec 14, 2024 296   Louisiana Monroe W 80-69 83%    
  Dec 18, 2024 228   Evansville W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 21, 2024 110   @ Liberty L 68-74 31%    
  Dec 29, 2024 185   @ Texas St. L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 221   @ Tarleton St. W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 276   @ Utah Tech W 79-76 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 218   @ Southern Utah W 79-78 53%    
  Jan 16, 2025 151   Utah Valley W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 127   Seattle W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 184   @ Abilene Christian L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 30, 2025 218   Southern Utah W 82-75 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 276   Utah Tech W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 06, 2025 151   @ Utah Valley L 71-74 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 127   @ Seattle L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 13, 2025 163   California Baptist W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 69   Grand Canyon L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 221   Tarleton St. W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 69   @ Grand Canyon L 71-81 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 184   Abilene Christian W 78-73 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 163   @ California Baptist L 69-71 43%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 3.2 2.5 1.2 0.3 11.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.6 4.6 1.7 0.3 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.7 6.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.2 5.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.0 1.4 0.1 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.0 4.4 1.1 0.1 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.2 9th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.6 7.0 8.9 11.0 12.2 12.5 11.9 10.2 7.8 4.9 2.8 1.2 0.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
14-2 89.4% 2.5    2.1 0.5 0.0
13-3 65.5% 3.2    2.0 1.1 0.1
12-4 33.1% 2.6    1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0
11-5 11.3% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.2% 11.2 6.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 75.2% 61.1% 14.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 36.3%
15-1 1.2% 57.9% 50.6% 7.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 14.7%
14-2 2.8% 44.4% 42.0% 2.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 4.2%
13-3 4.9% 32.4% 32.0% 0.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 0.6%
12-4 7.8% 24.7% 24.6% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.9 0.2%
11-5 10.2% 16.7% 16.7% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.5 0.1%
10-6 11.9% 10.4% 10.4% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.7
9-7 12.5% 5.6% 5.6% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.8
8-8 12.2% 3.0% 3.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.8
7-9 11.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.8
6-10 8.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.8
5-11 7.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.9
4-12 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-13 2.7% 2.7
2-14 1.4% 1.4
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.1% 9.8% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.8 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 89.9 0.3%