Preseason Rankings
Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#232
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.0#37
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#158
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#310
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.9
.500 or above 15.7% 20.6% 5.9%
.500 or above in Conference 16.6% 20.2% 9.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 31.6% 26.9% 40.7%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 33 - 74 - 16
Quad 46 - 410 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 263   North Dakota W 78-74 66%    
  Nov 12, 2024 92   @ Bradley L 68-81 12%    
  Nov 16, 2024 267   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-77 67%    
  Nov 25, 2024 129   @ Troy L 74-83 23%    
  Nov 25, 2024 243   Merrimack W 73-72 52%    
  Nov 30, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 89-75 89%    
  Dec 03, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 61-79 6%    
  Dec 07, 2024 15   @ Arkansas L 71-91 4%    
  Dec 15, 2024 263   @ North Dakota L 75-77 45%    
  Dec 29, 2024 321   @ Army W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 04, 2025 175   @ Tulane L 81-87 30%    
  Jan 07, 2025 148   Tulsa L 80-81 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 105   Wichita St. L 75-80 33%    
  Jan 14, 2025 211   @ Rice L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 86   North Texas L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 21, 2025 88   @ UAB L 73-86 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 130   Temple L 74-77 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 97   @ Florida Atlantic L 72-84 15%    
  Feb 01, 2025 86   @ North Texas L 61-74 13%    
  Feb 05, 2025 175   Tulane W 85-84 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 137   East Carolina L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 105   @ Wichita St. L 72-83 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 148   @ Tulsa L 77-84 28%    
  Feb 19, 2025 102   South Florida L 74-80 31%    
  Feb 23, 2025 137   @ East Carolina L 69-77 26%    
  Mar 02, 2025 211   Rice W 77-75 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 42   Memphis L 77-88 18%    
  Mar 09, 2025 126   @ Charlotte L 65-74 24%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.0 0.7 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.2 1.3 0.1 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.0 2.2 0.2 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 13.5 11th
12th 0.2 1.7 5.1 6.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 17.0 12th
13th 1.9 5.1 7.1 5.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 22.4 13th
Total 1.9 5.2 8.9 11.4 12.6 13.0 11.9 10.4 8.2 6.3 4.3 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 97.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 65.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 37.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 87.5% 37.5% 50.0% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0%
16-2 0.1% 38.2% 28.8% 9.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.2%
15-3 0.2% 17.4% 13.9% 3.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.1%
14-4 0.4% 17.0% 14.5% 2.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.0%
13-5 0.9% 7.3% 6.7% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6%
12-6 1.6% 4.4% 4.2% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.2%
11-7 2.9% 3.5% 3.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
10-8 4.3% 1.8% 1.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
9-9 6.3% 0.6% 0.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
8-10 8.2% 0.5% 0.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
7-11 10.4% 0.3% 0.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3
6-12 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9
5-13 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 13.0
4-14 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.6
3-15 11.4% 11.4
2-16 8.9% 8.9
1-17 5.2% 5.2
0-18 1.9% 1.9
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%