IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas St.
Sun Belt
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.9	#185
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.3	#248
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.6	#225

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.7	#144

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.7%	7.7%	3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.2	13.1	14.0

.500 or above	48.4%	54.3%	27.1%
.500 or above in Conference	57.6%	61.4%	43.6%
Conference Champion	7.5%	8.6%	3.6%
Last Place in Conference	5.8%	4.7%	9.9%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
First Round	6.6%	7.6%	3.2%
Second Round	0.8%	1.0%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 6	5 - 11
Quad 4	9 - 4	14 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	287	Eastern Michigan	W	71-63	78%
Nov 12, 2024	53	@ TCU	L	65-78	11%
Nov 16, 2024	184	@ Abilene Christian	L	68-71	38%
Nov 21, 2024	92	Bradley	L	64-71	26%
Dec 01, 2024	261	@ Texas Southern	W	68-67	54%
Dec 08, 2024	211	Rice	W	71-66	66%
Dec 14, 2024	97	@ Florida Atlantic	L	66-76	20%
Dec 21, 2024	209	Georgia Southern	W	74-69	66%
Dec 29, 2024	145	Texas Arlington	W	73-72	54%
Jan 02, 2025	194	@ Marshall	L	71-73	42%
Jan 04, 2025	139	@ Appalachian St.	L	65-70	32%
Jan 09, 2025	129	@ Troy	L	67-73	31%
Jan 11, 2025	236	@ Southern Miss	L	68-69	49%
Jan 15, 2025	204	Georgia St.	W	72-68	64%
Jan 18, 2025	236	Southern Miss	W	72-66	68%
Jan 22, 2025	156	@ Louisiana	L	67-71	36%
Jan 25, 2025	134	@ Arkansas St.	L	69-75	32%
Jan 30, 2025	156	Louisiana	W	70-68	56%
Feb 01, 2025	134	Arkansas St.	W	72-71	51%
Feb 05, 2025	227	@ Old Dominion	L	70-71	48%
Feb 13, 2025	296	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	70-67	60%
Feb 15, 2025	223	@ South Alabama	L	69-70	47%
Feb 19, 2025	296	Louisiana Monroe	W	73-64	77%
Feb 22, 2025	223	South Alabama	W	72-67	66%
Feb 25, 2025	129	Troy	W	71-70	50%
Feb 28, 2025	107	James Madison	L	70-72	44%
Projected Record						13 - 13	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.9	1.9	2.2	1.6	0.6	0.2		7.5	1st
2nd												0.2	1.5	2.7	2.3	0.8	0.1	0.0			7.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.7	3.4	2.5	0.6	0.0					8.4	3rd
4th										0.1	1.3	3.9	2.9	0.5	0.0	0.0					8.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.8	3.5	3.1	0.6	0.0							8.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	2.9	4.0	0.9	0.1								8.2	6th
7th								0.1	2.1	4.2	1.6	0.1									8.2	7th
8th							0.1	1.2	4.1	2.5	0.2	0.0									8.1	8th
9th						0.0	0.7	3.3	3.1	0.5	0.0										7.6	9th
10th					0.0	0.4	2.4	3.4	1.0	0.0											7.3	10th
11th				0.0	0.3	1.8	3.0	1.2	0.1	0.0											6.5	11th
12th			0.0	0.3	1.3	2.4	1.4	0.2	0.0												5.6	12th
13th		0.0	0.3	1.2	1.7	1.1	0.2	0.0													4.7	13th
14th	0.1	0.5	0.9	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0														3.2	14th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.3	2.6	3.9	5.9	7.8	9.6	10.7	11.1	10.9	10.0	8.5	6.7	4.9	3.1	1.7	0.6	0.2			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	99.6%	0.6		0.6	0.0
16-2	92.7%	1.6		1.3	0.3	0.0
15-3	71.7%	2.2		1.4	0.7	0.1	0.0
14-4	38.3%	1.9		0.7	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0
13-5	13.3%	0.9		0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	7.5%	7.5		4.3	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		69.0%	49.2%	19.8%	9.2		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		38.9%
17-1	0.6%		45.1%	39.4%	5.8%	10.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0				0.3		9.5%
16-2	1.7%		36.6%	35.4%	1.2%	12.0							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0			1.1		1.8%
15-3	3.1%		29.4%	29.3%	0.1%	12.5												0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		2.2		0.1%
14-4	4.9%		20.8%	20.8%		13.0												0.0	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.0		3.9
13-5	6.7%		17.2%	17.2%		13.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	5.5
12-6	8.5%		10.9%	10.9%		13.7												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0	7.6
11-7	10.0%		7.7%	7.7%		14.1													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	9.2
10-8	10.9%		3.7%	3.7%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	10.4
9-9	11.1%		2.4%	2.4%		14.9														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	10.8
8-10	10.7%		1.4%	1.4%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	10.6
7-11	9.6%		0.6%	0.6%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	9.5
6-12	7.8%		0.4%	0.4%		15.9																0.0	0.0	7.8
5-13	5.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	5.9
4-14	3.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
3-15	2.6%																							2.6
2-16	1.3%																							1.3
1-17	0.5%																							0.5
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		6.7%	6.6%	0.1%	13.2		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.4	2.0	1.7	0.9	0.3	93.3		0.1%