Preseason Rankings
The Citadel
Southern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#325
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.3#303
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#325
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#321
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 2.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 10.2% 29.7% 8.8%
.500 or above in Conference 13.0% 25.6% 12.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.7% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 22.5% 11.8% 23.3%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.6% 1.8% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 6.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 88 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 114   @ Boston College L 60-76 7%    
  Nov 11, 2024 290   Stetson W 69-68 50%    
  Nov 17, 2024 312   N.C. A&T W 70-68 56%    
  Nov 20, 2024 117   College of Charleston L 68-77 20%    
  Dec 12, 2024 301   Campbell W 68-67 52%    
  Dec 16, 2024 341   @ Central Arkansas L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 18, 2024 89   @ Vanderbilt L 59-78 5%    
  Jan 01, 2025 138   @ Samford L 69-83 12%    
  Jan 04, 2025 147   Chattanooga L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 08, 2025 165   Furman L 68-74 29%    
  Jan 11, 2025 170   @ East Tennessee St. L 61-73 16%    
  Jan 15, 2025 188   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-71 17%    
  Jan 18, 2025 361   VMI W 80-70 79%    
  Jan 22, 2025 153   @ Wofford L 62-75 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 238   Western Carolina L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 29, 2025 208   @ Mercer L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 01, 2025 138   Samford L 72-80 26%    
  Feb 05, 2025 188   UNC Greensboro L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 361   @ VMI W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 12, 2025 153   Wofford L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 238   @ Western Carolina L 63-72 24%    
  Feb 19, 2025 208   Mercer L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 22, 2025 147   @ Chattanooga L 63-76 14%    
  Feb 26, 2025 165   @ Furman L 65-77 15%    
  Mar 01, 2025 170   East Tennessee St. L 64-70 31%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.4 0.2 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.9 6.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 19.4 8th
9th 0.9 5.1 9.7 10.1 6.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 35.2 9th
10th 1.7 4.5 4.6 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 14.8 10th
Total 1.7 5.4 9.7 13.0 14.3 13.6 12.1 9.9 7.2 5.1 3.5 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 88.4% 0.0    0.0
15-3 78.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 52.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 41.9% 41.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 20.1% 20.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 11.9% 11.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.6% 11.2% 11.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 1.3% 7.4% 7.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
11-7 2.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9
10-8 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4
9-9 5.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.0
8-10 7.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.1
7-11 9.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.9
6-12 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
5-13 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.6
4-14 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
3-15 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.0
2-16 9.7% 9.7
1-17 5.4% 5.4
0-18 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%