Preseason Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#129
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.7#69
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#157
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#126
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.6% 15.7% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.5
.500 or above 75.1% 82.2% 58.8%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 81.2% 67.5%
Conference Champion 15.8% 18.5% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.3% 3.5%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round13.5% 15.6% 8.9%
Second Round2.6% 3.2% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 46 - 9
Quad 412 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 168   Toledo W 80-75 69%    
  Nov 09, 2024 346   @ New Orleans W 83-72 85%    
  Nov 13, 2024 15   @ Arkansas L 69-84 9%    
  Nov 17, 2024 34   @ Oregon L 67-79 14%    
  Nov 19, 2024 351   @ West Georgia W 79-67 85%    
  Nov 25, 2024 232   Texas San Antonio W 83-74 77%    
  Nov 29, 2024 243   Merrimack W 73-64 79%    
  Dec 01, 2024 255   Eastern Kentucky W 80-70 81%    
  Dec 10, 2024 3   @ Houston L 57-77 4%    
  Dec 21, 2024 204   @ Georgia St. W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 02, 2025 139   @ Appalachian St. L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 194   @ Marshall W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 09, 2025 185   Texas St. W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 134   Arkansas St. W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 15, 2025 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-69 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 223   @ South Alabama W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 23, 2025 236   Southern Miss W 77-68 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 223   South Alabama W 77-69 75%    
  Jan 30, 2025 209   Georgia Southern W 79-71 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 296   Louisiana Monroe W 78-66 84%    
  Feb 05, 2025 107   @ James Madison L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 12, 2025 156   @ Louisiana L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 134   @ Arkansas St. L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 156   Louisiana W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 291   Coastal Carolina W 81-69 83%    
  Feb 25, 2025 185   @ Texas St. L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 236   @ Southern Miss W 74-71 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.6 3.8 1.8 0.6 15.8 1st
2nd 0.3 2.1 4.7 4.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.0 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.5 3.7 0.9 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.8 0.9 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.8 1.2 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.7 1.6 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.6 4.0 5.8 7.9 9.4 10.7 11.8 11.9 10.9 9.1 6.6 4.2 1.8 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-1 98.7% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 90.3% 3.8    3.0 0.7 0.0
15-3 70.5% 4.6    2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 38.1% 3.5    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 9.7 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 72.7% 61.9% 10.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 28.4%
17-1 1.8% 54.4% 47.9% 6.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 12.4%
16-2 4.2% 41.9% 40.2% 1.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.4 2.9%
15-3 6.6% 33.0% 32.7% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.4 0.4%
14-4 9.1% 26.5% 26.5% 0.0% 12.8 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 6.7 0.0%
13-5 10.9% 19.1% 19.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.8 0.0%
12-6 11.9% 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 10.3 0.0%
11-7 11.8% 8.4% 8.4% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.8
10-8 10.7% 5.1% 5.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.2
9-9 9.4% 3.3% 3.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.1
8-10 7.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.7
7-11 5.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.6% 13.3% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 3.6 4.0 2.8 1.2 0.3 86.4 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 38.5 3.8 19.2 19.2 19.2