Preseason Rankings
UAB
American Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#88
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.8#160
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#134
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 2.2% 2.8% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 20.1% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.9% 6.1% 1.8%
Average Seed 10.2 10.0 11.1
.500 or above 89.8% 93.4% 80.3%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 81.1% 67.5%
Conference Champion 15.8% 18.0% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.2% 3.2%
First Four2.0% 2.4% 0.8%
First Round16.5% 19.0% 10.1%
Second Round7.1% 8.5% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 3.3% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Home) - 72.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 22 - 33 - 5
Quad 37 - 410 - 9
Quad 410 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 111   Vermont W 71-65 72%    
  Nov 07, 2024 236   Southern Miss W 80-67 90%    
  Nov 10, 2024 292   SE Louisiana W 79-62 94%    
  Nov 15, 2024 125   @ High Point W 79-77 55%    
  Nov 22, 2024 195   Longwood W 76-68 77%    
  Dec 01, 2024 197   Middle Tennessee W 76-64 85%    
  Dec 06, 2024 344   Prairie View W 87-65 97%    
  Dec 15, 2024 134   Arkansas St. W 81-73 76%    
  Dec 18, 2024 338   Alabama A&M W 85-64 96%    
  Dec 22, 2024 324   Alcorn St. W 83-64 95%    
  Dec 31, 2024 86   @ North Texas L 64-67 40%    
  Jan 04, 2025 148   Tulsa W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 07, 2025 175   Tulane W 86-76 81%    
  Jan 12, 2025 97   @ Florida Atlantic L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 15, 2025 102   @ South Florida L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 21, 2025 232   Texas San Antonio W 86-73 86%    
  Jan 26, 2025 42   @ Memphis L 76-83 29%    
  Jan 29, 2025 148   @ Tulsa W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 126   Charlotte W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 03, 2025 86   North Texas W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 11, 2025 137   @ East Carolina W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 16, 2025 102   South Florida W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 19, 2025 211   @ Rice W 76-69 70%    
  Feb 23, 2025 130   Temple W 77-69 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 105   @ Wichita St. L 74-75 48%    
  Mar 02, 2025 42   Memphis L 79-80 48%    
  Mar 06, 2025 97   Florida Atlantic W 77-73 63%    
  Mar 09, 2025 175   @ Tulane W 83-79 64%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 4.5 3.7 1.9 0.6 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 4.3 1.9 0.2 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.3 3.7 0.8 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.1 3.3 0.6 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 2.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.9 7.4 9.9 11.2 12.1 11.8 10.9 8.6 6.4 4.0 1.9 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.8 0.1
16-2 93.7% 3.7    3.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 70.1% 4.5    2.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.3% 3.4    1.3 1.6 0.5 0.1
13-5 13.9% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 9.9 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 97.6% 62.3% 35.3% 3.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.7%
17-1 1.9% 89.4% 48.8% 40.6% 6.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 79.4%
16-2 4.0% 71.3% 40.6% 30.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.1 51.7%
15-3 6.4% 50.1% 32.7% 17.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.2 25.8%
14-4 8.6% 34.1% 26.5% 7.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.7 10.3%
13-5 10.9% 20.6% 18.9% 1.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.6 2.1%
12-6 11.8% 14.5% 14.1% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.4%
11-7 12.1% 9.1% 8.9% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.0 0.2%
10-8 11.2% 4.9% 4.9% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.6
9-9 9.9% 3.8% 3.8% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.5
8-10 7.4% 1.5% 1.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3
7-11 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.4% 13.2% 4.2% 10.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.6 4.9 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 82.6 4.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.5 20.4 31.4 27.9 15.7 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 90.7% 3.1 14.4 20.6 16.5 27.8 5.2 5.2 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.8 14.4 14.4 24.0 13.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 4.8