Preseason Rankings
UC Irvine
Big West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#103
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.2#124
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#117
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 2.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.8% 41.4% 29.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.5% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.4 12.0 13.0
.500 or above 89.1% 94.7% 82.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 96.6% 91.8%
Conference Champion 47.3% 54.2% 39.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round35.5% 41.2% 29.0%
Second Round8.7% 11.4% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.6% 1.5%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 38 - 59 - 8
Quad 413 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 141   @ Loyola Marymount W 71-70 54%    
  Nov 10, 2024 112   @ Northern Iowa L 70-71 44%    
  Nov 16, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 77-66 84%    
  Nov 22, 2024 179   @ Weber St. W 71-68 60%    
  Nov 28, 2024 176   Kennesaw St. W 84-78 70%    
  Nov 29, 2024 118   Kent St. W 71-69 58%    
  Nov 30, 2024 124   Towson W 66-63 59%    
  Dec 05, 2024 278   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-60 88%    
  Dec 14, 2024 123   @ Oregon St. L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 19, 2024 144   @ Belmont W 76-75 54%    
  Dec 21, 2024 128   @ Duquesne L 68-69 50%    
  Dec 30, 2024 163   @ California Baptist W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 02, 2025 345   @ Cal Poly W 75-61 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 183   UC Riverside W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 09, 2025 239   @ Cal St. Northridge W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 162   @ UC San Diego W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 16, 2025 244   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-62 85%    
  Jan 18, 2025 345   Cal Poly W 78-58 95%    
  Jan 23, 2025 183   @ UC Riverside W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 192   Hawaii W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 245   @ Long Beach St. W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 191   UC Davis W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 162   UC San Diego W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 167   UC Santa Barbara W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 16, 2025 192   @ Hawaii W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 239   Cal St. Northridge W 82-70 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 278   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-63 73%    
  Feb 27, 2025 244   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 71-65 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 245   Long Beach St. W 82-70 84%    
  Mar 06, 2025 191   @ UC Davis W 71-68 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 167   @ UC Santa Barbara W 74-72 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.8 9.1 11.2 10.3 7.1 2.9 47.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.3 6.0 4.2 1.4 0.3 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.2 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.2 6.8 9.0 10.8 12.2 13.5 12.6 10.5 7.1 2.9 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.9    2.9
19-1 100.0% 7.1    7.1 0.1
18-2 97.5% 10.3    9.5 0.8
17-3 89.0% 11.2    9.3 1.9 0.1
16-4 67.5% 9.1    6.0 2.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 39.8% 4.8    2.1 2.2 0.5 0.1
14-6 14.8% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.3% 47.3 37.2 8.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.9% 83.1% 76.5% 6.6% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 28.2%
19-1 7.1% 70.8% 67.4% 3.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.1 10.5%
18-2 10.5% 58.5% 57.4% 1.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.4 2.6%
17-3 12.6% 51.8% 51.7% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.1 0.3%
16-4 13.5% 42.7% 42.7% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.7 0.1%
15-5 12.2% 34.2% 34.2% 13.5 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.5 0.0 8.0
14-6 10.8% 26.2% 26.2% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.1 8.0
13-7 9.0% 17.1% 17.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 7.5
12-8 6.8% 10.6% 10.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 6.1
11-9 5.2% 6.8% 6.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.8
10-10 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.5
9-11 2.3% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
8-12 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.5
7-13 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 35.8% 35.2% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 3.8 10.3 9.8 6.0 2.5 0.6 64.2 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.8 15.7 9.9 14.4 22.0 22.5 12.1 2.2 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 74.3% 6.4 14.3 28.6 17.1 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 8.3 11.8 29.4 14.7 29.4 14.7