Preseason Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#81
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.9#106
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#93
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 4.4% 4.5% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.2% 22.7% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.6% 11.9% 2.5%
Average Seed 9.1 9.0 10.8
.500 or above 81.1% 82.2% 50.3%
.500 or above in Conference 76.1% 76.8% 54.5%
Conference Champion 14.1% 14.4% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.3% 4.4%
First Four3.3% 3.3% 1.2%
First Round20.6% 21.1% 6.4%
Second Round9.9% 10.2% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 3.8% 0.6%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 96.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 45 - 8
Quad 37 - 311 - 11
Quad 48 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 324   Alcorn St. W 83-63 97%    
  Nov 09, 2024 126   Charlotte W 71-63 77%    
  Nov 18, 2024 190   Montana W 79-68 85%    
  Nov 22, 2024 45   Iowa L 80-83 39%    
  Nov 28, 2024 120   St. Bonaventure W 73-68 66%    
  Dec 04, 2024 177   Wyoming W 79-68 83%    
  Dec 07, 2024 276   Utah Tech W 84-68 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 102   South Florida W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 17, 2024 162   UC San Diego W 77-67 81%    
  Dec 22, 2024 35   @ St. Mary's L 63-70 28%    
  Dec 28, 2024 47   @ San Diego St. L 67-73 31%    
  Dec 31, 2024 75   @ Nevada L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 250   Fresno St. W 77-63 89%    
  Jan 07, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 11, 2025 63   Boise St. W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 14, 2025 95   @ UNLV L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 21, 2025 75   Nevada W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 229   @ Air Force W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 28, 2025 95   UNLV W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 70   New Mexico W 80-78 57%    
  Feb 04, 2025 177   @ Wyoming W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 250   @ Fresno St. W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 11, 2025 84   Colorado St. W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 160   San Jose St. W 77-67 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 47   San Diego St. W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 25, 2025 63   @ Boise St. L 69-73 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 84   @ Colorado St. L 69-72 41%    
  Mar 08, 2025 229   Air Force W 75-61 87%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.6 3.6 2.5 1.1 0.3 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.9 4.6 2.9 0.9 0.1 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 4.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.1 3.9 1.2 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.6 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.2 6.1 7.6 9.3 10.4 11.2 10.9 10.3 8.8 6.7 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 96.4% 2.5    2.2 0.3 0.0
17-3 79.7% 3.6    2.7 0.9 0.1
16-4 52.9% 3.6    1.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.4% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 9.1 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 99.3% 65.8% 33.5% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
19-1 1.1% 97.7% 57.0% 40.6% 4.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.6%
18-2 2.6% 92.1% 41.3% 50.8% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 86.5%
17-3 4.5% 81.2% 34.6% 46.6% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 71.2%
16-4 6.7% 63.9% 26.9% 37.0% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.4 50.6%
15-5 8.8% 43.4% 21.5% 21.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.0 27.9%
14-6 10.3% 27.8% 16.5% 11.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 7.4 13.5%
13-7 10.9% 15.4% 11.4% 4.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.3 4.5%
12-8 11.2% 8.9% 7.4% 1.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 1.5%
11-9 10.4% 5.4% 5.1% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.3%
10-10 9.3% 3.5% 3.4% 0.1% 12.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.1%
9-11 7.6% 2.1% 2.0% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0%
8-12 6.1% 1.0% 1.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
7-13 4.2% 0.6% 0.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
6-14 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
5-15 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-16 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.2% 12.1% 10.2% 9.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.2 3.3 6.0 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 77.8 11.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 53.1 34.4 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.3 44.4 11.1 33.3 11.1