IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.5	#276
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.0	#51
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.7	#261

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.8	#264

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.4%	2.9%	1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	13.8	14.5

.500 or above	12.4%	28.8%	9.5%
.500 or above in Conference	19.2%	31.2%	17.1%
Conference Champion	1.2%	2.4%	1.0%
Last Place in Conference	38.0%	25.5%	40.1%

First Four	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
First Round	1.3%	2.9%	1.0%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 14.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 7
Quad 3	3 - 8	4 - 15
Quad 4	6 - 5	10 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	123	@ Oregon St.	L	65-76	15%
Nov 09, 2024	161	New Mexico St.	L	70-73	40%
Nov 16, 2024	177	@ Wyoming	L	70-78	24%
Nov 22, 2024	77	@ Utah	L	68-84	8%
Nov 24, 2024	239	Cal St. Northridge	L	78-80	44%
Nov 25, 2024	190	@ Montana	L	70-77	26%
Nov 26, 2024	317	Denver	W	80-77	61%
Nov 30, 2024	257	@ Portland St.	L	73-77	37%
Dec 03, 2024	63	@ Boise St.	L	64-81	7%
Dec 07, 2024	81	@ Utah St.	L	68-84	8%
Dec 13, 2024	179	Weber St.	L	71-73	44%
Dec 19, 2024	274	South Dakota	W	79-76	60%
Dec 30, 2024	275	@ Florida International	L	76-79	40%
Jan 09, 2025	145	Texas Arlington	L	76-79	39%
Jan 11, 2025	221	Tarleton St.	W	73-72	52%
Jan 16, 2025	127	@ Seattle	L	66-77	19%
Jan 18, 2025	151	@ Utah Valley	L	67-76	22%
Jan 25, 2025	69	Grand Canyon	L	70-81	19%
Jan 30, 2025	221	@ Tarleton St.	L	70-76	32%
Feb 01, 2025	145	@ Texas Arlington	L	73-82	22%
Feb 06, 2025	184	Abilene Christian	L	73-75	44%
Feb 13, 2025	218	@ Southern Utah	L	74-80	32%
Feb 15, 2025	163	@ California Baptist	L	65-74	24%
Feb 20, 2025	151	Utah Valley	L	70-73	40%
Feb 22, 2025	184	@ Abilene Christian	L	70-78	26%
Feb 27, 2025	218	Southern Utah	W	78-77	51%
Mar 01, 2025	163	California Baptist	L	68-71	41%
Mar 06, 2025	69	@ Grand Canyon	L	67-84	8%
Mar 08, 2025	127	Seattle	L	69-74	35%
Projected Record						9 - 20	5 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.2	1st
2nd									0.0	0.4	1.0	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0				3.1	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.6	2.0	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0					4.9	3rd
4th							0.0	0.9	3.1	2.3	0.4	0.0							6.8	4th
5th						0.1	1.3	4.2	3.0	0.5	0.0								9.1	5th
6th					0.1	1.8	5.2	3.9	0.7	0.0									11.7	6th
7th			0.0	0.5	3.1	6.7	4.5	0.8	0.0										15.5	7th
8th		0.2	1.6	5.5	7.7	4.4	0.7	0.0											20.1	8th
9th	2.5	6.1	8.6	7.1	3.0	0.5	0.0												27.6	9th

Total	2.5	6.2	10.2	13.0	13.9	13.3	11.8	9.8	7.4	5.2	3.2	1.8	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
14-2	89.3%	0.2		0.2	0.0
13-3	68.3%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
12-4	41.1%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
11-5	13.4%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
10-6	2.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	1.2%	1.2		0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%																							0.0
15-1	0.0%		26.8%	26.8%		11.6												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
14-2	0.2%		41.3%	41.3%		12.4											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
13-3	0.4%		25.2%	25.2%		13.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
12-4	0.9%		18.9%	18.9%		13.4												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7
11-5	1.8%		14.3%	14.3%		14.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.6
10-6	3.2%		7.1%	7.1%		14.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	3.0
9-7	5.2%		4.2%	4.2%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	5.0
8-8	7.4%		2.0%	2.0%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	7.2
7-9	9.8%		0.9%	0.9%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	9.7
6-10	11.8%		0.3%	0.3%		15.9															0.0		0.0	11.8
5-11	13.3%		0.2%	0.2%		15.9																0.0	0.0	13.3
4-12	13.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.9
3-13	13.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	13.0
2-14	10.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
1-15	6.2%																							6.2
0-16	2.5%																							2.5

Total	100%		1.4%	1.4%	0.0%	14.3											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	98.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%