Preseason Rankings
UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#152
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.0#65
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#240
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#103
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 12.2% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.8 12.4 13.3
.500 or above 53.5% 69.3% 43.4%
.500 or above in Conference 55.2% 65.3% 48.8%
Conference Champion 9.9% 14.2% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 5.9% 11.7%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round8.8% 12.0% 6.7%
Second Round1.5% 2.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 36 - 67 - 11
Quad 48 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 151   @ Utah Valley L 68-71 39%    
  Nov 20, 2024 167   @ UC Santa Barbara L 71-73 41%    
  Nov 25, 2024 160   San Jose St. W 70-69 51%    
  Nov 26, 2024 245   Long Beach St. W 79-74 65%    
  Nov 27, 2024 188   UNC Greensboro W 69-68 55%    
  Dec 07, 2024 127   Seattle W 69-68 54%    
  Dec 11, 2024 50   @ Louisville L 69-81 15%    
  Dec 16, 2024 221   Tarleton St. W 73-67 71%    
  Dec 20, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 78-66 85%    
  Jan 02, 2025 108   Louisiana Tech L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 119   Sam Houston St. W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 161   New Mexico St. W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 16, 2025 110   @ Liberty L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 18, 2025 275   @ Florida International W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 202   Jacksonville St. W 70-64 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 82-78 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 77-83 31%    
  Feb 01, 2025 197   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 161   @ New Mexico St. L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 13, 2025 275   Florida International W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 110   Liberty L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 20, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. L 79-81 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 202   @ Jacksonville St. L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 27, 2025 115   Western Kentucky W 80-79 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 197   Middle Tennessee W 70-65 67%    
  Mar 06, 2025 119   @ Sam Houston St. L 68-73 33%    
  Mar 08, 2025 108   @ Louisiana Tech L 65-71 30%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.6 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 4.9 3.2 0.8 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.3 2.3 5.1 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.6 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 2.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.7 6.5 8.2 9.7 10.6 11.0 10.5 9.6 8.2 6.4 4.4 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 97.6% 1.4    1.3 0.1
15-3 84.0% 2.4    1.9 0.5 0.0
14-4 58.2% 2.6    1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 30.0% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0
12-6 7.7% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 6.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 83.0% 65.9% 17.0% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
17-1 0.7% 65.9% 55.1% 10.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 24.1%
16-2 1.5% 44.5% 38.7% 5.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 9.4%
15-3 2.9% 34.0% 32.2% 1.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.9 2.7%
14-4 4.4% 27.2% 26.9% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 0.5%
13-5 6.4% 20.9% 20.8% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.1 0.1%
12-6 8.2% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.0 0.0%
11-7 9.6% 11.1% 11.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.5
10-8 10.5% 7.8% 7.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.7
9-9 11.0% 4.8% 4.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.4
8-10 10.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.3
7-11 9.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.5
6-12 8.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1
5-13 6.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.5
4-14 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-15 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.9% 8.7% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.4 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 91.1 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 20.0
Lose Out 0.0%