Preseason Rankings
Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#242
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.1#150
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#232
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#247
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.9% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 26.0% 45.3% 20.2%
.500 or above in Conference 22.9% 35.3% 19.2%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 26.5% 16.8% 29.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.6% 2.9% 1.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Neutral) - 23.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 84 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 110   Liberty L 64-72 23%    
  Nov 12, 2024 213   Cleveland St. W 73-71 56%    
  Nov 21, 2024 349   Lindenwood W 77-65 85%    
  Nov 24, 2024 326   Eastern Illinois W 74-65 78%    
  Nov 27, 2024 306   Northern Illinois W 76-69 72%    
  Nov 29, 2024 122   @ DePaul L 68-78 20%    
  Dec 04, 2024 106   Drake L 69-74 31%    
  Dec 14, 2024 277   Central Michigan W 70-65 65%    
  Dec 17, 2024 31   @ Ohio St. L 62-81 5%    
  Dec 20, 2024 311   @ Western Michigan W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 29, 2024 92   @ Bradley L 63-76 13%    
  Jan 01, 2025 207   @ Missouri St. L 68-73 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 112   Northern Iowa L 68-73 35%    
  Jan 08, 2025 132   Indiana St. L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 136   @ Murray St. L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 14, 2025 144   @ Belmont L 72-80 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 203   Illinois-Chicago W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 22, 2025 106   @ Drake L 66-77 17%    
  Jan 25, 2025 228   Evansville W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 28, 2025 140   Southern Illinois L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 193   @ Illinois St. L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 05, 2025 132   @ Indiana St. L 72-81 23%    
  Feb 08, 2025 136   Murray St. L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 12, 2025 144   Belmont L 75-77 44%    
  Feb 16, 2025 228   @ Evansville L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 207   Missouri St. W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 140   @ Southern Illinois L 63-71 26%    
  Feb 26, 2025 92   Bradley L 66-73 28%    
  Mar 02, 2025 203   @ Illinois-Chicago L 69-74 35%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 5.1 3.0 0.6 0.0 13.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.2 4.8 5.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 15.9 11th
12th 0.8 2.7 4.7 5.2 3.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 19.0 12th
Total 0.8 2.7 5.3 7.5 9.6 10.7 11.1 11.0 10.0 8.4 7.0 5.4 4.0 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 90.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 84.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 63.2% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 34.5% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 59.3% 22.2% 37.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.6%
19-1 0.0% 57.6% 42.4% 15.3% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.5%
18-2 0.1% 25.9% 25.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 24.1% 21.1% 3.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.8%
16-4 0.6% 24.1% 24.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.1% 16.2% 16.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-6 1.7% 12.5% 12.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-7 2.7% 9.4% 9.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5
12-8 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.8
11-9 5.4% 3.0% 3.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2
10-10 7.0% 2.2% 2.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.8
9-11 8.4% 1.0% 1.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3
8-12 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
7-13 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 11.0
6-14 11.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
5-15 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.7
4-16 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
3-17 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.5
2-18 5.3% 5.3
1-19 2.7% 2.7
0-20 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%