Preseason Rankings
Weber St.
Big Sky
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#179
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.4#299
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#165
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#191
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.2% 24.5% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.7 14.5
.500 or above 64.7% 82.0% 58.1%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 87.7% 75.5%
Conference Champion 23.9% 32.7% 20.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.3% 3.9%
First Four1.8% 1.0% 2.2%
First Round17.4% 24.1% 14.8%
Second Round1.8% 3.3% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 27.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 123   @ Oregon St. L 64-70 28%    
  Nov 13, 2024 75   @ Nevada L 63-74 15%    
  Nov 17, 2024 192   @ Hawaii L 66-68 42%    
  Nov 22, 2024 103   UC Irvine L 68-71 40%    
  Nov 29, 2024 265   Bowling Green W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 04, 2024 234   North Dakota St. W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 07, 2024 263   @ North Dakota W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 13, 2024 276   @ Utah Tech W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 21, 2024 151   Utah Valley W 68-66 56%    
  Dec 29, 2024 34   @ Oregon L 62-77 10%    
  Jan 02, 2025 226   @ Northern Colorado L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 315   @ Idaho St. W 68-63 65%    
  Jan 16, 2025 190   Montana W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 149   Montana St. W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 23, 2025 257   @ Portland St. W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 300   @ Sacramento St. W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 279   Idaho W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 262   Eastern Washington W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 03, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 315   Idaho St. W 71-60 81%    
  Feb 13, 2025 149   @ Montana St. L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 190   @ Montana L 68-71 42%    
  Feb 20, 2025 300   Sacramento St. W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 257   Portland St. W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 262   @ Eastern Washington W 74-73 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 279   @ Idaho W 68-66 56%    
  Mar 03, 2025 226   Northern Colorado W 76-70 68%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 5.3 5.9 4.8 2.6 0.8 23.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 6.2 3.8 1.3 0.2 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.1 4.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 4.8 3.6 1.0 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 4.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.7 5.2 7.1 8.9 10.3 11.2 11.8 11.5 9.4 7.2 5.0 2.6 0.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.5 0.1
16-2 96.6% 4.8    4.4 0.4
15-3 81.7% 5.9    4.5 1.4 0.1
14-4 56.8% 5.3    3.0 2.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 28.4% 3.3    1.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.7% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.9% 23.9 16.6 5.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 66.3% 64.8% 1.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.2%
17-1 2.6% 55.7% 55.4% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 0.7%
16-2 5.0% 46.6% 46.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.7
15-3 7.2% 40.0% 40.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 4.3
14-4 9.4% 30.2% 30.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 6.6
13-5 11.5% 23.9% 23.9% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.5 8.8
12-6 11.8% 16.7% 16.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 9.8
11-7 11.2% 12.3% 12.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 9.9
10-8 10.3% 10.1% 10.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 9.3
9-9 8.9% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 8.4
8-10 7.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.8
7-11 5.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.1
6-12 3.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 2.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 4.5 4.5 3.7 81.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.7 3.0 30.3 3.0 48.5 15.2