Preseason Rankings
Western Carolina
Southern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#238
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.2#216
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#245
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#225
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.5% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 36.3% 49.5% 23.0%
.500 or above in Conference 49.1% 58.0% 40.3%
Conference Champion 6.2% 8.5% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 2.9% 6.7%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 1.1%
First Round5.3% 7.2% 3.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Away) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 49 - 512 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 289   @ Queens L 77-78 50%    
  Nov 19, 2024 41   @ Wake Forest L 64-81 6%    
  Nov 30, 2024 26   @ Marquette L 63-82 5%    
  Dec 04, 2024 299   Bellarmine W 71-65 72%    
  Dec 07, 2024 330   South Carolina Upstate W 73-64 79%    
  Dec 14, 2024 186   @ UNC Asheville L 69-75 31%    
  Dec 17, 2024 14   @ Tennessee L 60-81 4%    
  Jan 01, 2025 165   Furman L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 138   Samford L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 153   @ Wofford L 67-74 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 208   Mercer W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 361   @ VMI W 81-72 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 188   UNC Greensboro W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 22, 2025 170   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 25, 2025 325   @ The Citadel W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 29, 2025 147   Chattanooga L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 361   VMI W 84-69 90%    
  Feb 05, 2025 165   @ Furman L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 188   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 12, 2025 170   East Tennessee St. L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 325   The Citadel W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 19, 2025 147   @ Chattanooga L 67-75 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 138   @ Samford L 74-82 25%    
  Feb 26, 2025 153   Wofford L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 01, 2025 208   @ Mercer L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.2 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.8 1.0 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.5 4.4 1.0 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 4.6 1.0 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.1 5.6 4.0 1.0 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.2 5.3 2.9 0.7 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.2 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.4 7.8 9.8 11.0 11.5 11.3 10.3 8.8 6.9 5.2 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 96.4% 0.8    0.8 0.1
15-3 82.0% 1.6    1.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 53.4% 1.8    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 21.9% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 4.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 48.8% 45.8% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5%
17-1 0.3% 45.6% 42.9% 2.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.8%
16-2 0.9% 36.2% 36.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
15-3 1.9% 28.9% 28.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.5% 22.9% 22.9% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.7
13-5 5.2% 16.9% 16.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 4.3
12-6 6.9% 12.0% 12.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 6.1
11-7 8.8% 7.8% 7.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 8.1
10-8 10.3% 5.8% 5.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.7
9-9 11.3% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.9
8-10 11.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.2
7-11 11.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.9
6-12 9.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.7
5-13 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.8
4-14 5.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.4
3-15 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.1
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%