Preseason Rankings
Wichita St.
American Athletic
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.5#140
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#115
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#99
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 2.0% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 15.6% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.5% 6.0% 1.6%
Average Seed 10.4 10.0 11.1
.500 or above 68.4% 81.1% 58.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.9% 73.4% 58.3%
Conference Champion 9.3% 13.0% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.2% 5.3%
First Four1.5% 2.3% 0.8%
First Round10.2% 14.4% 6.9%
Second Round3.8% 5.8% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 2.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 53 - 7
Quad 37 - 510 - 12
Quad 47 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 79-81 44%    
  Nov 09, 2024 149   Montana St. W 76-69 74%    
  Nov 14, 2024 112   Northern Iowa W 72-68 64%    
  Nov 18, 2024 216   Monmouth W 77-67 82%    
  Nov 22, 2024 94   Saint Louis L 76-77 45%    
  Nov 28, 2024 76   Minnesota L 70-73 40%    
  Dec 04, 2024 324   Alcorn St. W 80-63 93%    
  Dec 07, 2024 170   East Tennessee St. W 74-66 75%    
  Dec 14, 2024 122   @ DePaul L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 17, 2024 205   UMKC W 75-65 80%    
  Dec 21, 2024 39   Kansas St. L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 03, 2025 130   @ Temple L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 06, 2025 102   South Florida W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 232   @ Texas San Antonio W 80-75 67%    
  Jan 14, 2025 126   Charlotte W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 137   East Carolina W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 23, 2025 42   @ Memphis L 72-81 23%    
  Jan 26, 2025 148   @ Tulsa W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 29, 2025 86   North Texas W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 126   @ Charlotte L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 09, 2025 102   @ South Florida L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 12, 2025 232   Texas San Antonio W 83-72 82%    
  Feb 16, 2025 42   Memphis L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 97   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 23, 2025 175   Tulane W 83-75 75%    
  Feb 27, 2025 88   UAB W 75-74 52%    
  Mar 03, 2025 86   @ North Texas L 61-66 33%    
  Mar 06, 2025 211   @ Rice W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 09, 2025 148   Tulsa W 78-71 71%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.7 2.0 0.8 0.2 9.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.9 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.2 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 3.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.3 2.5 3.9 1.2 0.1 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 1.5 0.1 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.3 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.6 6.4 8.5 10.2 11.1 11.5 11.1 9.9 8.3 6.0 3.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.4% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 91.6% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
15-3 70.2% 2.7    1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.8% 2.3    0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 12.1% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 5.4 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 92.4% 39.3% 53.2% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.6%
17-1 0.8% 86.9% 43.5% 43.4% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 76.8%
16-2 2.2% 70.5% 35.3% 35.2% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 54.4%
15-3 3.8% 48.2% 26.1% 22.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 29.9%
14-4 6.0% 32.2% 20.8% 11.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 14.4%
13-5 8.3% 19.9% 16.2% 3.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.6 4.5%
12-6 9.9% 11.9% 10.9% 1.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.7 1.1%
11-7 11.1% 8.3% 8.0% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.1 0.2%
10-8 11.5% 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.1%
9-9 11.1% 2.4% 2.4% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9
8-10 10.2% 1.4% 1.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0
7-11 8.5% 0.8% 0.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
6-12 6.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
5-13 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-14 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.9% 7.7% 3.2% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 3.0 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 89.1 3.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.1 30.3 45.5 12.1 12.1