Preseason Rankings
Xavier
Big East
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#28
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.3#27
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.2% 2.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 5.7% 5.8% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 14.5% 14.9% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 24.7% 25.2% 7.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.1% 57.0% 27.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.5% 53.4% 26.0%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 7.9
.500 or above 82.2% 83.1% 54.5%
.500 or above in Conference 64.7% 65.4% 41.6%
Conference Champion 7.9% 8.1% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 3.5% 10.1%
First Four4.7% 4.7% 3.6%
First Round53.8% 54.7% 26.2%
Second Round35.2% 35.9% 14.8%
Sweet Sixteen16.6% 16.9% 6.1%
Elite Eight7.6% 7.7% 2.1%
Final Four3.5% 3.6% 0.7%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 96.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 33 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 261   Texas Southern W 85-65 97%    
  Nov 08, 2024 360   IU Indianapolis W 90-60 99.8%   
  Nov 12, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 88-65 98%    
  Nov 16, 2024 41   Wake Forest W 80-76 65%    
  Nov 20, 2024 339   Siena W 85-59 99%    
  Nov 25, 2024 64   South Carolina W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 01, 2024 307   South Carolina St. W 89-67 97%    
  Dec 05, 2024 53   @ TCU L 79-80 47%    
  Dec 10, 2024 320   Morgan St. W 92-68 98%    
  Dec 14, 2024 27   @ Cincinnati L 74-77 39%    
  Dec 18, 2024 1   @ Connecticut L 68-79 16%    
  Dec 21, 2024 26   Marquette W 80-77 59%    
  Dec 31, 2024 68   Seton Hall W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 03, 2025 101   @ Georgetown W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 07, 2025 18   St. John's W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 122   @ DePaul W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 14, 2025 37   Villanova W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 26   @ Marquette L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 22, 2025 18   @ St. John's L 77-81 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 1   Connecticut L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 29, 2025 13   @ Creighton L 74-80 32%    
  Feb 04, 2025 101   Georgetown W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 09, 2025 37   @ Villanova L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 48   @ Providence L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 122   DePaul W 83-71 84%    
  Feb 18, 2025 72   Butler W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 23, 2025 68   @ Seton Hall W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 13   Creighton W 77-76 51%    
  Mar 05, 2025 72   @ Butler W 78-77 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 48   Providence W 78-73 66%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.4 3.7 2.0 0.7 0.1 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.0 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.5 4.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.8 1.0 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.7 6.2 8.2 9.6 10.5 10.8 10.5 9.7 7.9 6.2 4.3 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 92.4% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
17-3 74.5% 2.0    1.4 0.5 0.0
16-4 47.7% 2.1    1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 20.8% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.8 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 53.3% 46.7% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 49.3% 50.7% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.7% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 2.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 99.9% 23.0% 77.0% 3.3 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 6.2% 99.7% 17.7% 82.0% 4.5 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 7.9% 98.8% 14.1% 84.7% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.6%
13-7 9.7% 94.8% 9.7% 85.1% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 94.3%
12-8 10.5% 86.5% 7.2% 79.4% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.4 85.5%
11-9 10.8% 69.5% 4.0% 65.6% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.1 3.3 68.3%
10-10 10.5% 46.7% 2.6% 44.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.6 45.3%
9-11 9.6% 19.1% 1.7% 17.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.2 7.8 17.7%
8-12 8.2% 5.3% 0.6% 4.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.8 4.7%
7-13 6.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.7%
6-14 4.7% 0.4% 0.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
5-15 3.1% 3.1
4-16 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 56.1% 7.5% 48.6% 6.7 2.2 3.5 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.0 6.6 6.7 6.6 5.6 5.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.9 52.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.4 9.6