Butler
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
14  Katie Clark JR 19:25
193  Mara Olson SO 20:21
272  Kirsty Legg JR 20:32
379  Olivia Pratt FR 20:46
464  Lauren McKillop SR 20:54
859  Kaitlyn Love SR 21:24
1,440  Alyson Fosnot JR 22:03
1,461  Shelbi Burnett JR 22:05
1,674  Erica Carlson SO 22:18
National Rank #36 of 339
Great Lakes Region Rank #5 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 19.6%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 4.8%


Regional Champion 0.1%
Top 5 in Regional 49.6%
Top 10 in Regional 99.8%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Katie Clark Mara Olson Kirsty Legg Olivia Pratt Lauren McKillop Kaitlyn Love Alyson Fosnot Shelbi Burnett Erica Carlson
Pre-Nationals Meet (Red) 10/13 679 19:30 20:24 20:30 20:41 20:45 21:23 22:16
Pre-Nationals Meet (Black) 10/13 22:28
Atlantic 10 Championships 10/27 702 19:19 20:27 20:31 20:42 20:56 21:14 21:53 22:09
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/09 680 19:34 20:24 20:12 20:56 20:51 21:45 21:46
NCAA Championship 11/17 760 19:24 20:13 21:04 20:47 21:05 21:21 22:30





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 19.6% 23.7 545 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.7
Region Championship 100% 5.7 165 0.1 1.6 6.6 18.0 23.3 20.6 15.2 8.4 4.7 1.3 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Katie Clark 100% 19.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.4 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.6
Mara Olson 21.0% 124.3 0.0
Kirsty Legg 19.6% 153.5
Olivia Pratt 19.6% 190.3
Lauren McKillop 19.6% 207.5
Kaitlyn Love 19.6% 243.1
Alyson Fosnot 19.7% 252.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Katie Clark 1.1 47.2 19.4 13.4 7.8 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mara Olson 25.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 3.8 3.8
Kirsty Legg 33.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.7
Olivia Pratt 45.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7
Lauren McKillop 53.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Kaitlyn Love 88.1
Alyson Fosnot 138.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 1
2 1.6% 100.0% 1.6 1.6 2
3 6.6% 81.8% 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.2 5.4 3
4 18.0% 53.9% 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 8.3 9.7 4
5 23.3% 10.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 20.9 2.4 5
6 20.6% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 20.4 0.3 6
7 15.2% 0.4% 0.1 15.2 0.1 7
8 8.4% 8.4 8
9 4.7% 4.7 9
10 1.3% 1.3 10
11 0.2% 0.2 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 19.6% 0.1 1.6 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.0 80.4 1.7 17.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Kentucky 11.2% 1.0 0.1
Southern Utah 2.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Baylor 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Ohio U. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.2
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0