Arizona
Men
-
Women
2012
-
2013 -
2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
Rank | Name | Grade | Rating |
15 |
Elvin Kibet |
SR |
19:25 |
26 |
Nicci Corbin |
JR |
19:31 |
28 |
Kayla Beattie |
SO |
19:32 |
43 |
Maria Larsson |
FR |
19:42 |
228 |
Stephanie Bulder |
JR |
20:26 |
297 |
Hanna Peterson |
JR |
20:37 |
303 |
Erin Menefee |
SR |
20:37 |
513 |
Molly Callahan |
SO |
20:58 |
575 |
Clea Formaz |
JR |
21:04 |
1,032 |
Katie Penney |
JR |
21:35 |
|
National Rank |
#2 of 340 |
West Region Rank |
#1 of 39 |
Chance of Advancing to Nationals |
100.0% |
Most Likely Finish |
2nd at Nationals |
National Champion |
15.6% |
Top 5 at Nationals |
68.3% |
Top 10 at Nationals |
93.0% |
Top 20 at Nationals |
99.9% |
Regional Champion |
78.2% |
Top 5 in Regional |
100.0% |
Top 10 in Regional |
100.0% |
Top 20 in Regional |
100.0% |
|
Race Performance Ratings
Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.
Race | Date | Team Rating | |
Elvin Kibet |
Nicci Corbin |
Kayla Beattie |
Maria Larsson |
Stephanie Bulder |
Hanna Peterson |
Erin Menefee |
Molly Callahan |
Clea Formaz |
Katie Penney |
Roy Griak Invitational |
09/28 |
254 |
19:27 |
19:37 |
19:39 |
19:44 |
20:26 |
20:15 |
20:32 |
20:36 |
21:04 |
21:35 |
Wisconsin adidas Invitational |
10/19 |
198 |
19:37 |
19:34 |
19:21 |
19:32 |
20:25 |
20:05 |
20:36 |
20:57 |
|
|
Pac-12 Championships |
11/02 |
270 |
19:05 |
19:12 |
19:10 |
20:12 |
20:48 |
20:24 |
20:53 |
21:33 |
|
|
West Region Championships |
11/15 |
300 |
19:32 |
19:48 |
19:33 |
19:36 |
20:32 |
21:20 |
20:42 |
|
|
|
NCAA Championship |
11/23 |
275 |
19:20 |
19:25 |
20:06 |
19:39 |
20:14 |
21:48 |
20:33 |
|
|
|
NCAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Ave Finish | Ave Score |
Finishing Place |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
NCAA Championship |
100.0% |
4.6 |
216 |
15.6 |
16.6 |
14.8 |
12.0 |
9.3 |
7.5 |
5.8 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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Region Championship |
100% |
1.3 |
75 |
78.2 |
16.6 |
4.2 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
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Individual Results
NCAA Championship | Advances to Round | Ave Finish |
Finishing Place |
---|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Elvin Kibet |
100% |
19.0 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
Nicci Corbin |
100% |
28.0 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
Kayla Beattie |
100.0% |
29.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
Maria Larsson |
100.0% |
45.3 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
Stephanie Bulder |
100.0% |
159.3 |
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Hanna Peterson |
100.0% |
187.1 |
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Erin Menefee |
100.0% |
188.2 |
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Regional | Ave Finish |
Finishing Place |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
Elvin Kibet |
5.4 |
4.5 |
6.7 |
8.8 |
12.2 |
12.9 |
13.3 |
12.9 |
9.5 |
7.4 |
4.6 |
3.0 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Nicci Corbin |
7.2 |
1.2 |
3.0 |
4.8 |
6.1 |
9.3 |
10.8 |
12.1 |
12.6 |
11.6 |
9.6 |
6.5 |
3.9 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
Kayla Beattie |
7.4 |
0.9 |
2.2 |
4.3 |
6.4 |
8.7 |
10.2 |
12.0 |
13.4 |
12.0 |
8.9 |
6.4 |
4.3 |
3.2 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
Maria Larsson |
10.3 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
4.0 |
5.5 |
8.3 |
11.9 |
12.7 |
11.9 |
9.4 |
7.4 |
5.2 |
4.3 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
Stephanie Bulder |
43.7 |
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0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
Hanna Peterson |
54.8 |
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0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
Erin Menefee |
55.1 |
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0.0 |
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0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
NCAA Championship Selection Detail
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
Region Finish |
Chance of Finishing |
Chance of Advancing |
Auto |
|
At Large Selection |
|
No Adv |
Auto |
At Large |
Region Finish |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
1 |
78.2% |
100.0% |
78.2 |
|
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78.2 |
|
1 |
2 |
16.6% |
100.0% |
|
16.6 |
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16.6 |
|
2 |
3 |
4.2% |
100.0% |
| |
4.2 |
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4.2 |
3 |
4 |
0.8% |
95.2% |
| |
|
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
0.8 |
4 |
5 |
0.2% |
100.0% |
| |
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0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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0.0 |
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0.2 |
5 |
6 |
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| |
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6 |
7 |
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7 |
8 |
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8 |
9 |
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| |
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9 |
10 |
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| |
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10 |
11 |
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| |
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11 |
12 |
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| |
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12 |
13 |
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| |
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13 |
14 |
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14 |
15 |
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15 |
16 |
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16 |
17 |
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17 |
18 |
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18 |
19 |
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19 |
20 |
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20 |
21 |
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21 |
22 |
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22 |
23 |
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23 |
24 |
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24 |
25 |
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25 |
26 |
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26 |
27 |
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27 |
28 |
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28 |
29 |
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29 |
30 |
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30 |
31 |
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31 |
32 |
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32 |
33 |
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33 |
34 |
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34 |
35 |
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35 |
36 |
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36 |
37 |
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37 |
38 |
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38 |
39 |
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39 |
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Total |
100% |
100.0% |
78.2 |
16.6 |
4.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
94.8 |
5.2 |
Points
At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection.
Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.
Received By Beating | Chance Received | Average If >0 | Average |
Iowa State |
100.0% |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Colorado |
100.0% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
New Mexico |
100.0% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Providence |
100.0% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Arkansas |
100.0% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Minnesota |
100.0% |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Dartmouth |
99.8% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Michigan State |
99.7% |
2.0 |
2.0 |
Butler |
99.7% |
1.0 |
1.0 |
Washington |
94.2% |
2.0 |
1.9 |
Oregon |
92.8% |
1.0 |
0.9 |
San Francisco |
91.9% |
1.0 |
0.9 |
Cornell |
80.6% |
1.0 |
0.8 |
Syracuse |
75.6% |
2.0 |
1.5 |
Notre Dame |
74.1% |
1.0 |
0.7 |
Vanderbilt |
73.9% |
2.0 |
1.5 |
Indiana |
70.1% |
1.0 |
0.7 |
Stanford |
68.7% |
1.0 |
0.7 |
Texas A&M |
56.7% |
1.0 |
0.6 |
Harvard |
37.3% |
1.0 |
0.4 |
Wisconsin |
35.7% |
1.0 |
0.4 |
Arizona State |
33.7% |
3.0 |
1.0 |
Boston College |
31.0% |
1.0 |
0.3 |
Florida |
29.1% |
1.0 |
0.3 |
BYU |
9.3% |
1.0 |
0.1 |
Texas |
8.2% |
1.0 |
0.1 |
Duke |
6.3% |
1.0 |
0.1 |
Georgia |
6.1% |
2.0 |
0.1 |
North Carolina St. |
4.8% |
2.0 |
0.1 |
Columbia |
1.5% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
UC Davis |
0.3% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Weber State |
0.0% |
2.0 |
0.0 |
Northwestern |
0.0% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
Stony Brook |
0.0% |
1.0 |
0.0 |
|
Total |
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25.0 |
|
Minimum |
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17.0 |
Maximum |
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33.0 |