Arizona
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
15  Elvin Kibet SR 19:25
26  Nicci Corbin JR 19:31
28  Kayla Beattie SO 19:32
43  Maria Larsson FR 19:42
228  Stephanie Bulder JR 20:26
297  Hanna Peterson JR 20:37
303  Erin Menefee SR 20:37
513  Molly Callahan SO 20:58
575  Clea Formaz JR 21:04
1,032  Katie Penney JR 21:35
National Rank #2 of 340
West Region Rank #1 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 15.6%
Top 5 at Nationals 68.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 93.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.9%


Regional Champion 78.2%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Elvin Kibet Nicci Corbin Kayla Beattie Maria Larsson Stephanie Bulder Hanna Peterson Erin Menefee Molly Callahan Clea Formaz Katie Penney
Roy Griak Invitational 09/28 254 19:27 19:37 19:39 19:44 20:26 20:15 20:32 20:36 21:04 21:35
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 198 19:37 19:34 19:21 19:32 20:25 20:05 20:36 20:57
Pac-12 Championships 11/02 270 19:05 19:12 19:10 20:12 20:48 20:24 20:53 21:33
West Region Championships 11/15 300 19:32 19:48 19:33 19:36 20:32 21:20 20:42
NCAA Championship 11/23 275 19:20 19:25 20:06 19:39 20:14 21:48 20:33





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100.0% 4.6 216 15.6 16.6 14.8 12.0 9.3 7.5 5.8 5.0 3.6 2.7 2.5 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.3 75 78.2 16.6 4.2 0.8 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Elvin Kibet 100% 19.0 0.6 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.1
Nicci Corbin 100% 28.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.2
Kayla Beattie 100.0% 29.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.8 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.2
Maria Larsson 100.0% 45.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.2
Stephanie Bulder 100.0% 159.3
Hanna Peterson 100.0% 187.1
Erin Menefee 100.0% 188.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Elvin Kibet 5.4 4.5 6.7 8.8 12.2 12.9 13.3 12.9 9.5 7.4 4.6 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nicci Corbin 7.2 1.2 3.0 4.8 6.1 9.3 10.8 12.1 12.6 11.6 9.6 6.5 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Kayla Beattie 7.4 0.9 2.2 4.3 6.4 8.7 10.2 12.0 13.4 12.0 8.9 6.4 4.3 3.2 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Maria Larsson 10.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 4.0 5.5 8.3 11.9 12.7 11.9 9.4 7.4 5.2 4.3 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4
Stephanie Bulder 43.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.1
Hanna Peterson 54.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4
Erin Menefee 55.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 78.2% 100.0% 78.2 78.2 1
2 16.6% 100.0% 16.6 16.6 2
3 4.2% 100.0% 4.2 4.2 3
4 0.8% 95.2% 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 4
5 0.2% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 100.0% 78.2 16.6 4.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 94.8 5.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Iowa State 100.0% 2.0 2.0
Colorado 100.0% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Providence 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 100.0% 2.0 2.0
Dartmouth 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 99.7% 2.0 2.0
Butler 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Washington 94.2% 2.0 1.9
Oregon 92.8% 1.0 0.9
San Francisco 91.9% 1.0 0.9
Cornell 80.6% 1.0 0.8
Syracuse 75.6% 2.0 1.5
Notre Dame 74.1% 1.0 0.7
Vanderbilt 73.9% 2.0 1.5
Indiana 70.1% 1.0 0.7
Stanford 68.7% 1.0 0.7
Texas A&M 56.7% 1.0 0.6
Harvard 37.3% 1.0 0.4
Wisconsin 35.7% 1.0 0.4
Arizona State 33.7% 3.0 1.0
Boston College 31.0% 1.0 0.3
Florida 29.1% 1.0 0.3
BYU 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Texas 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Duke 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.1% 2.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 4.8% 2.0 0.1
Columbia 1.5% 1.0 0.0
UC Davis 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Weber State 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 25.0
Minimum 17.0
Maximum 33.0